All Things Baseball

Let me first say that I'm not 100% convinced that the Phillies should go after a high-profile free agent SP. So, let's look at what they've got right now: (projected starters)

Randy Wolf: Not bad, but not an "ace" by any means. Injuries obviously hurt him this past year, but before that, he was turning into an interesting pitcher... LHP, good K numbers, good K-BB ratios.

Vicente Padilla: Again, not bad, but not an "ace". I wonder if he's falling into that Matt Clement region of "excellent stuff but never quite puts it together for a season." He has excellent WHIP numbers (at least, before this past season), but his K-BB ratio isn't overwhelming. For a guy with "electric stuff", you'd hope for a little more.

Brett Myers: Ugh. What happened? I had this guy on my fantasy team, and man, what a disappointment. It sure seems like a mental problem, because before the season, everyone was all raving about his stuff and his presence. We'll have to see.

Corey Lidle: The recent re-signing of Lidle means he'll be in the rotation. Everyone loves this guy in the front office, but he sure seems like an ordinary pitcher to me. That said, he did well for the Phillies in his 10 starts, he's a good control pitcher, and he's an "innings-eater"... though the value of that is still up in the air for me.

Gavin Floyd: Well, this is a question... but he's exciting and young, so of course, Philly is craving more starts from this guy. If Brett Myers' story wasn't a cautionary tale, then I don't know what is, but then again, he showed some promise. His 16 walks in 28.1 IP isn't great, but he is very young.

So. There's your starting rotation, as of this moment. Definitely promising, definitely with room to grow... but is that where the Phillies are right now? No. Not with Thome (and not Ryan Howard) manning first base.

Personally, I'd like to see Ryan Madson try a starting role on for size and see just where his curveball will lead him. He was invaluable in the pen, but I like our pen even without him... and I wonder if Brett Myers would be better suited in relief anyway. There's a topic for another day.

I'd also like to see Gavin Floyd wait a little bit longer. The guy was born in 1983 for goodness sake! That makes him... 21 yrs old? Almost 22? He can wait, and he can grow a little more.

Perhaps the Phillies could use another SP. They have 6 who could start (counting Madson), but there are questions surrounding Myers, Madson, Floyd, and Lidle. And I don't know about you, but having Wolf or Padilla head the rotation doesn't excite me quite yet.

Now, here's my question: Why aren't more people talking about Odalis Perez?

The New York Times on Sunday had an interesting article comparing the various free agents out there. A lot of them had deceiving numbers (Russ Ortiz and Kris Benson were prime examples... and thank god the Mets continued their string of poor moves by signing Benson to a ridiculous contract). Ultimately, the article seemed to suggest that GM's liked Matt Clement, because of his K/9IP numbers and his Hits/9IP numbers, both tops in the free agent pool. I, however, think that Odalis Perez may be the true gem of the lot... by far.

The numbers for the past two seasons: (H/9IP - K/9IP - BB/9IP - ERA - Age)
Clement: 7.6 - 8.5 - 3.7 - 3.90 - 30
Perez: 8.8 - 6.3 - 2.1 - 3.87 - 27
Lowe: 10.3 - 5.0 - 3.3 - 4.92 - 31
Millwood: 9.1 - 7.3 - 3.0 - 4.34 - 30
Pavano: 8.8 - 5.8 - 2.1 - 3.61 - 28
Benson: 9.7 - 6.0 - 2.9 - 4.54 - 30
Morris: 8.9 - 6.0 - 2.3 - 4.28 - 30
Russ Ortiz: 8.1 - 6.3 - 4.6 - 3.97 - 30

What do these numbers tell me?
1. Please god, do not let the Phillies pretend that Lowe is a reliable groundball pitcher and go all out to sign him. He may have been lights out in the playoffs for the Sox, but those are some scary numbers for a 31 year old to have.

2. Pavano, widely considered the cream of the free agent crop is appealing for several reasons, namely his very low BB/9IP numbers. But has he proven it over time? No. Is he worth the money he'll be getting? I really don't think so... but I may be wrong on this. I'm willing to let this one go by without a swing, however.

3. The Mets are dreaming if they think Benson is worth all that money.

4. Odalis Perez -- This guy should be the target if you're considering any of these pitchers. Why?

His BB/9IP numbers are equal to Pavano's, and 2.1 is very very low. His other numbers are encouraging as well - 8.8 hits per nine is acceptable, and his 6.3 K's per nine compare favorable to the other pitchers in the group. In fact, his 2004 season, even with his minor injury issues, yielded a 1.14 WHIP, a nearly 3-to-1 K-BB ratio, and a .250 BAA. In addition, though his numbers took a dip in the 2003 season, his 2002 numbers are amazing (0.99 WHIP, a 4-to-1 K-BB ratio, .226 BAA)! He's done this before, in other words.

Throw in the fact that he's left-handed and only 27 years old... and you've got a no-brainer in my mind. In fact, his slightly-off 2003 season, as well as his pretty terrible playoff run, is probably serving to lower his asking price, so in a sense, you could get this guy at a slight bargain!

It is true that he was pitching a lot in LA and their pitcher-friendly park. But a look at his 2004 season shows that he had:
- limited Boston to 5 hits and 1 run, with 7 K's and 1 BB over 8 IP, in Fenway.
- stifled Baltimore's offense to 5 hits and 1 run over 7 IP.
- kept Atlanta quiet with 4 hits and 1 run over 7 IP (and lost, to show how misleading his W-L record is).

So, this guys has kept good offensive teams silent. He's no Chan Ho Park.

Therefore, here's what I say: If you're going to go after a free-agent SP, don't go after Lowe. Don't go after Pavano. Many teams seem to be all over these guys, and their price will sky rocket for no good reason. Instead, let's slip behind the lines and steal Odalis Perez. You'll be getting a guy who has a low 90's fastball, great control, great curve, and who even gets lots of groundouts. And he's 27, so you can actually build a good rotation around him!

Imagine it:
Odalis Perez
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Corey Lidle
Gavin Floyd or Ryan Madson (or Brett Myers)

There's a rotation I can live with.