All Things Baseball

The Phillies are an interesting team in that they have both interesting young players in development (Ryan Madson, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, and Chase Utley head the list) and veterans in the relative prime of their careers (most notably Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, and Billy Wagner). There are also players who have a good amount of experience (Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla) but who are still figuring out exactly what they bring to the table. Nevertheless, their potential is undeniable. As a result of this mix, it seems that the Phillies are in the enviable situation of being in a position to contend for it all (if you're being optimistic, of course) and yet having young studs in the system set up for the near future. There is an energy around this team, if you're a fan of the Phillies, and there's a sense that one more key free agent who's young but established would really help to put this team in a very exciting spot.

It is in this context that we have the Phillies pursuing David Wells.

It has recently been reported that the Phillies have stepped up their efforts to sign David Wells to a one year contract. Specifically, they have offered at least (at LEAST) $5 million for one year of David Wells' services. All of this leads to a very important question...

Why???

I'll state my opinions right off the bat - At first glance, I think the Phillies are making a big mistake in going after someone like David Wells. Now, what do I mean by "someone like David Wells"? For the most part, I mean someone who is 41 years old, soon to be 42 next May. I mean someone who's pretty much a short term rental player, a guy who'll be here for one year and one year only, a guy who'll have no serious impact to the long term development of this team. And, I mean a guy who'll add very little, if anything, to the team.

Now, am I right? Are my opinions reasonable? I'm not sure... and I'm willing to keep an open mind on this while I analyze it all.

I've already made my case about Odalis Perez (see below). I mean, you have a guy who's about 15 years younger than David Wells (FIFTEEN YEARS), a guy who's also left-handed, and a guy who won't be all that much more expensive than 5 million a year. You have a guy who can be a mainstay in the rotation for many more years, and you have a guy who quite frankly is better than David Wells right now.

So what gives?

Well, let's take a look at Wells' 2004 numbers. First, the basics:
(G - W/L - IP - H - HR - K - BB - ERA - WHIP - BAA)
31 12-8 195.2 203 23 101 20 3.73 1.14 .266

I was surprised when I saw these numbers. I knew Wells had a good year for the Padres, but I didn't expect the low WHIP and the low BAA. His K/9IP come out to about 4.66; his BB/9IP come out to .92; his K/BB ratio is a solid 5.05. These are very good indicators, and something I wouldn't have expected from a guy like Wells at this stage in his career.

Even more encouraging is his relative consistency throughout the season. He definitely started off very very well, posting WHIP numbers of 1.10, 1.00, and 1.00 for his first 3 months (a span of 13 starts). He dipped a bit in July (WHIP of 1.33), but his August and September numbers were very very good (1.23, 1.11 respectively). In fact, he became more of a strikeout pitcher as the season progressed, putting up the following K numbers in each successive month: 7, 9, 17, 13, 22, 29. All this while maintaining consistently low BB numbers (5, 2, 1, 2, 7, 3).

So, there was no late season swoon, contrary to what you might expect from an overweight 41 year old. A one-year signing is starting to look a little better... but let's take a look at his stats over the past 5 years first:

(year - ERA - WHIP - IP - K - BB - K/9IP - BB/9IP - BAA)
1998 3.49 1.05 214.1 163 29 6.86 1.22 .239
1999 4.82 1.33 231.2 169 62 6.58 2.41 .271
2000 4.11 1.29 229.2 166 31 6.52 1.22 .289
2001 4.47 1.40 100.2 59 21 5.29 1.89 .297
2002 3.75 1.24 206.1 137 45 5.98 1.97 .259
2003 4.14 1.23 213.0 101 20 4.27 0.85 .286

Definitely not as good numbers as his 2004 numbers, at least in terms of WHIP and BAA, but interestingly good nonetheless. There are areas of concern, however - foremost for me is his somewhat high batting average against numbers. He seems to be in the .270-.280 BAA area consistently, if not higher. Also, his K rate has dropped precipitously over the last 6 years, though as I noted above, he did finish strong in 2004. One thing is true however, and that is that Wells has been a very good control pitcher, as evidenced by his low BB/9IP numbers.

So where does that leave us?

I think it's clear that the Phillies are hoping that Wells can provide a solid, stable presence at the top of the rotation. His numbers last year certainly warrant consideration as an "ace", and they were certainly better than the numbers put up by Randy Wolf or Vicente Padilla. If Wells is signed for one year, that sets our rotation at:

David Wells
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Cory Lidle
Brett Myers

And this means that (1) Gavin Floyd will start at AAA (which I actually support 100%) (2) Ryan Madson will be in the bullpen again, unless Brett Myers continues his mysterious lack of development (3) the Phillies will not pursue Odalis Perez or some other starter like Derek Lowe. In other words, the Phillies are planning to make Wells their only other free agent SP acquisition.

His numbers are encouraging, and his experience can't be denied. Nevertheless, I can't shake the feeling that this signing would be a move that the Mets would make, or the Orioles... neither team I would want to be a fan of. As I've said before, we're at an enviable place with the Phillies... their rotation has some solid starters like Padilla and Wolf. They have some very good young kids who are a year away from making their anticipated splash in Floyd and Hamels. They have a young pitcher with the dreaded "upside" in Brett Myers. Why not take this opportunity to take that 5 million you'd spend on Wells and put it into a guy like Perez who can really put some long-term shape into this rotation?

For example, let's look at the projected 2006 rotation, assuming Wells is gone after 1 season:

Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Gavin Floyd
Cory Lidle
Brett Myers/Ryan Madson/Cole Hamels

And the long term projected rotation (with MANY assumptions, I know):

Gavin Floyd
Cole Hamels
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Brett Myers

It's intriguing for sure, but you know... I just wish there was a guy we could have in the rotation who's (1) young (2) established (3) possessing nasty pitches (4) and who'll be here for a long time... and it just so happens that (I believe) there is a guy out there for the taking. Namely Odalis Perez. Insert his name in the above rotations... Got too many pitchers? How about trading Brett Myers? Or maybe Madson or Hamels? Or, daresay, Randy Wolf? Sure could use a good centerfielder, couldn't we? (And don't get me started on Carlos Beltran)

Bottom line: David Wells would provide something good this season, barring injury or breakdown. But my concern is deeper than just 2005. Why not make a move or signing that meets more than just 2005's needs? Why not kill two birds with one stone? Why not establish a good rotation for next year AND the years beyond?

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.

I just wanted to thank those who posted comments on my opinions regarding Odalis Perez. It looks like there are a few people out there who agree, and people made good points about Clement and Radke. Let's see what Ed Wade manages to do!

On that note, my next post will examine David Wells. And hopefully I can answer the following question: Why is Philadelphia pursuing this free agent?? Count me as skeptical, but let's see if there are any surprises after analyzing Wells.

Brett Myers
DOB: 8/17/1980 (magical year!)
Age: 24
6-4, 223, RHP
1st Round Pick (12th overall) in 1999

So let's talk about Brett Myers. There was a LOT of excitement accompanying his ascent through minor league ball, and his debut in July 2002 was about as anticipated as any debut by any Phillie pitcher. He seemed to be the real deal, armed with a plus fastball, a scary-good curveball, the mentality of a former boxer, and the perfect physique for a pitcher. He was the "next Schilling", the can't miss prospect for the Phillies, a future number one, and a bulldog at heart. He also (perhaps unfortunately) came in the same time Mark Prior entered the league... and the inevitable comparisons sprouted.

I, for one, was enamored of Brett Myers way before he threw his first pitch. I'm involved in a very fun and very devoted keeper fantasy baseball league, and in 2002, I was making my cross-country drive from Boston to LA and back. A great trip, one that I suggest everyone does, no matter how old you are (I was 26)... the only problem was that Brett was due to make his debut while I was on the trip! So there I was feverishly checking the fantasy leagues while on the trip, in my motel rooms, to be sure to snatch him up with my #1 waiver priority as soon as he was available. (Yes I was a little too obsessed with it, but hey, I'm better now.)

So how's he doing now?

Well, first thing's first - he is still only 24. 24 years old! He's incredibly young, he's still highly regarded skills-wise, and there are many many pitchers who ... for lack of a better word ... were late bloomers. Curt Schilling comes to mind, which is interesting and perhaps revealing, given the similarities between the two. So I will be the first to admit that there are many reasons to say that Brett Myers is exactly where he should be at this point in his career. This, however, doesn't make for an interesting column, so I'm going to take a different approach.

Let's look at his career numbers, starting with his year-end totals.
(W-L - G - IP - ERA - WHIP - K - BB - HR - H - BAA)
2002: 4-5 12 72.0 4.25 1.42 34 29 11 73 .277
2003: 14-9 32 193.0 4.43 1.46 143 76 20 205 .272
2004: 11-11 32 176.0 5.52 1.47 116 62 31 196 .281

Some initial thoughts:
- Let's put away his 2002 numbers for now... it was his first season, and a half season at that. He was acclimating to the big leagues, and so there are many variables that could explain his numbers (both good and bad).

- In comparing 2003 and 2004, there are some glaring trends: (1) His homeruns allowed jumped significantly (+55%) from 20 to 31. (2) His K's dropped significantly from 143 to 116. (3) His ERA jumped up. (4) His BAA jumped as well.

So, let's look at his K/9IP and BB/9IP and H/9IP numbers:
2003: K/9IP = 6.7 BB/9IP = 3.5 H/9IP = 9.6
2004: K/9IP = 5.9 BB/9IP = 3.2 H/9IP = 10.0

Not the most encouraging numbers to be sure.

Now, all in all, his 2003 and 2004 seasons are similar enough to chalk it up to early career learning and development. His K rate dropped pretty significantly, but there was talk during the season of turning Brett into a "pitcher" rather than a "thrower", so this may be a reflection of that philosophy. Also, it may be possible that the new stadium in Philly contributed to both his higher HR total and higher ERA. I'll take a look at the stadium issues a little more closely later on, however.

What can't be ignored, however, is his uncomfortably high BAA (which worsened) and his high WHIP. It's clear that he's not yet in the realm of Mark Prior (or Rich Harden?), but like I said before, this may have been an unfair comparison any way. When combined with his lower K rate, at least on the surface of things, it sure seems like Brett is having trouble getting people out. And this just doesn't seem to fit the profile of a pitcher with plus stuff.

Let's look at the possibility that the new stadium is an issue:
2003 Home Stats: 8-5, 3.71 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 99.1 IP, 89 K, 44 BB, 89 H, 8 HR
2004 Home Stats: 5-7, 5.77 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 73.1 IP, 42 K, 19 BB, 81 H, 15 HR

It sure does seem like the new stadium (either physically or psychologically) affected Brett in 2004. His ERA and HR totals seems to validate the claim that the new stadium is a hitter's park... but to me it just raises the question: Why didn't Brett adjust and keep his pitches low?

His Away splits are also illuminating:
2003 Away Stats: 6-4, 5.19 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 93.2 IP, 54 K, 32 BB, 116 H, 12 HR
2004 Away Stats: 6-4, 5.35 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 102.2 IP, 74 K, 43 BB, 115 H, 16 HR

Yikes! Pretty consistently bad, wouldn't you say? Now again, yes, he is a young pitcher, still learning the ropes. But this is a guy who came in with so many expectations, so much hype, so much hoopla over his boxer's mentality, and with comparisons to Schilling and Prior. Unfair or not, they are there... and Brett just doesn't quite add up. Yet.

Also of note is that his 2004 Away splits are worse than his Home splits, at least in terms of WHIP. His HR rate is lower Away than at Home, so perhaps it's not so simple to call the new Vet a hitter's park. Perhaps it's just a homerun-friendly park. Kinda makes sense that there aren't too many singles and doubles and such -- the short outfield would actually hinder those hits, and in fact many of what would be doubles are actually turning into homeruns.

A look at his game log for 2004 is also somewhat worrisome. It's the model of inconsistency - in successive games from June to September, Brett allowed the following earned runs: 2, 6, 1, 5, 8, 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0, 6, 6, 2, 4, 2, 5, 1, 1, 7. He pitched gems against San Diego and LA... but both of those were in those respective pitcher-friendly parks. He pitched clunkers against Boston (understandable), the Mets (ugh), the Giants, the Astros, and the Expos (which should never happen). There was just no consistency in his season - just when he seemed to be catching fire, he'd follow it up with 3 straight crappers. In the end, his 2004 season was an enigma, hard to read and with no discernible patterns.

Given his success against SD and LA in those ballparks, one might say that Brett is in trouble at the new Philly stadium... perhaps he needs the bounteous outfields. But then, look at his box line from May 20, against LA in Philly: 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 5 H. Bottom line? There is exceptional talent in Brett Myers, and there are so many times when it just gives a little peek and excites Phillies fans (most notably... me!).

Ultimately, I do think that Brett is growing and learning and developing. Perhaps the change in pitching coaches (good riddance Joe Kerrigan) will help. So what do the Phillies do with him?

There was one news moment that I remember where Brett expressed an interest in relieving and even closing (once Billy Wagner leaves, one would presume). I'm not sure about that for Brett. It may be that he is the next Eric Gagne, but something tells me that Brett just needs a little more time, with a little more experience to help him get through the lineup his second and third times through. So to me, the bullpen is not the answer.

Trade him? An interesting proposition... especially if the Phillies do sign someone like (holding my breath) Odalis Perez (see below). But once again, he is 24, still quite possibly the next Schilling. Something tells me that if the Phillies traded him, he'd just blow up for another team and start putting up great numbers. And in any case, what could the Phillies really get for him? Andruw Jones? Maybe... I'm sure Leo Mazzone would love to get his hands on Brett (and man, would he suddenly become Cy Young!). It wouldn't be a straight up trade, because I don't think anyone in their right mind would give up a CF like Jones for Brett.

Given his huge upside (yeah, it's still there), and given his youth and opportunity to grow, for now I say give him another year in the new stadium. Let's see what happens. After this year, if there's no growth, however, I might start to say that it's time to move on and give up on the hype.

But let's wait and see.

I will be back posting on Sunday or Monday, after Thanksgiving. My fiancee will be with her parents in Wisconsin, but I'll be back in the fold in Philly with my parents (it's our parents' last hurrahs before the wedding, etc). Hope you all have great holiday weekends, and go Eagles!

Next up, I would like to tackle the enigma that is Brett Myers. We'll be taking a look at his career thus far, any trends, how he might progress, and what the Phillies can do with him. My discussion of Odalis Perez hinged somewhat on the question of Brett Myers, so it seems like the next logical step for exploration.

Before that, I'd like to say hello to all the Phillies bloggers that are out there. Thanks to the many bloggers for their welcomes and links to my blog. If there are any other bloggers out there, please check to see if I've made a link to your site, and if I haven't please email me (emhan98@hotmail.com) and I'll put it in.

Likewise, I'd love a link from your blog as well!

So up next... Brett Myers.

Let me first say that I'm not 100% convinced that the Phillies should go after a high-profile free agent SP. So, let's look at what they've got right now: (projected starters)

Randy Wolf: Not bad, but not an "ace" by any means. Injuries obviously hurt him this past year, but before that, he was turning into an interesting pitcher... LHP, good K numbers, good K-BB ratios.

Vicente Padilla: Again, not bad, but not an "ace". I wonder if he's falling into that Matt Clement region of "excellent stuff but never quite puts it together for a season." He has excellent WHIP numbers (at least, before this past season), but his K-BB ratio isn't overwhelming. For a guy with "electric stuff", you'd hope for a little more.

Brett Myers: Ugh. What happened? I had this guy on my fantasy team, and man, what a disappointment. It sure seems like a mental problem, because before the season, everyone was all raving about his stuff and his presence. We'll have to see.

Corey Lidle: The recent re-signing of Lidle means he'll be in the rotation. Everyone loves this guy in the front office, but he sure seems like an ordinary pitcher to me. That said, he did well for the Phillies in his 10 starts, he's a good control pitcher, and he's an "innings-eater"... though the value of that is still up in the air for me.

Gavin Floyd: Well, this is a question... but he's exciting and young, so of course, Philly is craving more starts from this guy. If Brett Myers' story wasn't a cautionary tale, then I don't know what is, but then again, he showed some promise. His 16 walks in 28.1 IP isn't great, but he is very young.

So. There's your starting rotation, as of this moment. Definitely promising, definitely with room to grow... but is that where the Phillies are right now? No. Not with Thome (and not Ryan Howard) manning first base.

Personally, I'd like to see Ryan Madson try a starting role on for size and see just where his curveball will lead him. He was invaluable in the pen, but I like our pen even without him... and I wonder if Brett Myers would be better suited in relief anyway. There's a topic for another day.

I'd also like to see Gavin Floyd wait a little bit longer. The guy was born in 1983 for goodness sake! That makes him... 21 yrs old? Almost 22? He can wait, and he can grow a little more.

Perhaps the Phillies could use another SP. They have 6 who could start (counting Madson), but there are questions surrounding Myers, Madson, Floyd, and Lidle. And I don't know about you, but having Wolf or Padilla head the rotation doesn't excite me quite yet.

Now, here's my question: Why aren't more people talking about Odalis Perez?

The New York Times on Sunday had an interesting article comparing the various free agents out there. A lot of them had deceiving numbers (Russ Ortiz and Kris Benson were prime examples... and thank god the Mets continued their string of poor moves by signing Benson to a ridiculous contract). Ultimately, the article seemed to suggest that GM's liked Matt Clement, because of his K/9IP numbers and his Hits/9IP numbers, both tops in the free agent pool. I, however, think that Odalis Perez may be the true gem of the lot... by far.

The numbers for the past two seasons: (H/9IP - K/9IP - BB/9IP - ERA - Age)
Clement: 7.6 - 8.5 - 3.7 - 3.90 - 30
Perez: 8.8 - 6.3 - 2.1 - 3.87 - 27
Lowe: 10.3 - 5.0 - 3.3 - 4.92 - 31
Millwood: 9.1 - 7.3 - 3.0 - 4.34 - 30
Pavano: 8.8 - 5.8 - 2.1 - 3.61 - 28
Benson: 9.7 - 6.0 - 2.9 - 4.54 - 30
Morris: 8.9 - 6.0 - 2.3 - 4.28 - 30
Russ Ortiz: 8.1 - 6.3 - 4.6 - 3.97 - 30

What do these numbers tell me?
1. Please god, do not let the Phillies pretend that Lowe is a reliable groundball pitcher and go all out to sign him. He may have been lights out in the playoffs for the Sox, but those are some scary numbers for a 31 year old to have.

2. Pavano, widely considered the cream of the free agent crop is appealing for several reasons, namely his very low BB/9IP numbers. But has he proven it over time? No. Is he worth the money he'll be getting? I really don't think so... but I may be wrong on this. I'm willing to let this one go by without a swing, however.

3. The Mets are dreaming if they think Benson is worth all that money.

4. Odalis Perez -- This guy should be the target if you're considering any of these pitchers. Why?

His BB/9IP numbers are equal to Pavano's, and 2.1 is very very low. His other numbers are encouraging as well - 8.8 hits per nine is acceptable, and his 6.3 K's per nine compare favorable to the other pitchers in the group. In fact, his 2004 season, even with his minor injury issues, yielded a 1.14 WHIP, a nearly 3-to-1 K-BB ratio, and a .250 BAA. In addition, though his numbers took a dip in the 2003 season, his 2002 numbers are amazing (0.99 WHIP, a 4-to-1 K-BB ratio, .226 BAA)! He's done this before, in other words.

Throw in the fact that he's left-handed and only 27 years old... and you've got a no-brainer in my mind. In fact, his slightly-off 2003 season, as well as his pretty terrible playoff run, is probably serving to lower his asking price, so in a sense, you could get this guy at a slight bargain!

It is true that he was pitching a lot in LA and their pitcher-friendly park. But a look at his 2004 season shows that he had:
- limited Boston to 5 hits and 1 run, with 7 K's and 1 BB over 8 IP, in Fenway.
- stifled Baltimore's offense to 5 hits and 1 run over 7 IP.
- kept Atlanta quiet with 4 hits and 1 run over 7 IP (and lost, to show how misleading his W-L record is).

So, this guys has kept good offensive teams silent. He's no Chan Ho Park.

Therefore, here's what I say: If you're going to go after a free-agent SP, don't go after Lowe. Don't go after Pavano. Many teams seem to be all over these guys, and their price will sky rocket for no good reason. Instead, let's slip behind the lines and steal Odalis Perez. You'll be getting a guy who has a low 90's fastball, great control, great curve, and who even gets lots of groundouts. And he's 27, so you can actually build a good rotation around him!

Imagine it:
Odalis Perez
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Corey Lidle
Gavin Floyd or Ryan Madson (or Brett Myers)

There's a rotation I can live with.

I'll be discussing the various free agent SP's that are out there and why I think the Phillies should or shouldn't go after them. Sneak preview however: Don't go after Lowe!

Welcome! To the few people who may actually read this and come to my blog, thank you. I'll be starting a new weblog devoted to baseball. Now, I'm Philadelphia born and raised, and I absolutely love the Phillies. But while I'll be focusing on the Phillies, I'll also be talking about the rest of the league. I am after all, in the end, a baseball fan... and there is no shortage of stuff to talk about - the off season trades and signings, the new dimension added by fantasy baseball (which I am a fan of), and predictions for the upcoming season.

Ah, baseball. Gotta love it.

If you're with me on this, please, read my posts and by all means email me or post comments. Nothing better than an interesting dialogue or debate on this great sport.