All Things Baseball

Man, the Red Sox have many moves that I wish the Phillies had made. I'm assuming Wade Miller's shoulder is more problematic than is being let on, because otherwise I have no idea why Houston would simply non-tender such a young, talented pitcher. He passed his physical, but as Pedro has shown, a "physical" is by no means a constant. In any case, Boston's rotation, which had taken a hit with Pedro's departure and Pavano's rejection, now shapes up to be interesting, if not exciting.

Curt Schilling
David Wells
Matt Clement
Wade Miller
Bronson Arroyo, with Tim Wakefield in the pen.

I had thought that the Sox would go get Odalis Perez, but Wade Miller's unexpected availability may have shifted their attention. In any case, this is one of those moderate-risk/high reward rotations... Schilling we know about, ankle and all, but Wells, Clement and Miller all can put up very interesting numbers, with high K/BB or K/9IP rates. In addition, there's an good balance of RHP and LHP's, and a good mix of groundball and flyball pitchers. In short, this is a rotation that could end up being average or great, but at the very least, Theo Epstein went out and tried the big moves.

(segue into conservative moves of Ed Wade)

In any case, Happy Holidays to all! I'll be taking a break until January 2nd, so I wanted to thank the people who read my blog and comment on my posts. Hope you all have a safe holiday season, and I'll be talking to you all again after the new year.

Reports are that JD Drew has signed with the Dodgers for 5 years, $55 million. As a Phillies fanatic, I am proud to say that I detest JD Drew and Scott Boras. I loved that the Phillies tried to draft this guy and take a principled stand (no $10 million bonus), and while hindsight shows that this move definitely hurt the Phillies, I really didn't mind what they tried to do. And I also developed an instant animosity towards St. Louis when they drafted Drew the next year, even after several teams let him pass.

That said, JD Drew had an amazing year last season for the Braves. He finally managed to play a DL-free season, and in 145 games, he put up the following numbers:

(AB - R - 2B - HR - RBI - BB - K - AVG - OBP - SLG - OPS)
518 - 118 - 28 - 31 - 93 - 118 - 116 - .305 - .436 - .570 - 1.006

He was, in my opinion, the main reason that the Braves were as successful as they were last year. Without Drew, they may have still won the NL East, but I don't know. At the All-Star break, Drew's VORP was a healthy 41. And his numbers stayed consistent throughout the year. I am underwhelmed by his 28 doubles - I feel that a good hitter should get at least 35, but his OBP and SLG numbers were incredible. He was one of only 9 hitters to end up with an OPS over 1.000 (Bonds, Helton, Pujols, Rolen, Beltre, Edmonds, Berkman, Manny Ramirez were the others... Boy, St. Louis had 3 hitters with OPS's over 1.000!).

There is, of course, an important caveat when it comes to Drew - last season was his first fully healthy season. Looking at his career numbers, he seems to have alternatively bad and terrible years - 135 games one year, 100 the next, 135 the next year, then 100 again. If you believe in patterns, then Drew is due for an injury this year that will limit him to about 100 games.

Also, something that's interesting when you look at his numbers - he hasn't had that many great seasons! Taking the injury aspect out of it, his only star season before 2004 was in 2001 when he put up similar, if not better numbers. The other years were, on the other hand, average. Now how much of that was due to his injuries... well, that's up for debate. But this is the guy the Dodgers signed for 11 million per year.

Was he worth it? Well, yes. Given the Dodgers' specific situation, absolutely yes.

- They were reeling from having lost Adrian Beltre, and they were facing a relapse to 2003 when their offense stunk.
- This may give them a little more freedom to actually trade Shawn Green.
- The NL West is a weak division, and even one bat may make all the difference.
- Given what is left in the free agent market (Beltran, for example), Drew may actually be a CHEAP alternative! His value was equal to that of Beltran's and he'll come at a cheaper price... if Boras is to be believed.

Now, how much does this hurt the Braves? They may have a good starting rotation (though, see my previous posts - I think their rotation is vastly overrated). But where is their offense coming from? Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Marcus Giles, Rafael Furcal, Johnny Estrada, Adam LaRoche are their mainstays from last season... and I'm less than impressed.

- Andruw Jones is one of the most overrated players in the National League. His numbers are pedestrian (.833 OPS), even though his defense is subjectively stellar. For all the hype surrounding him, he hasn't put up the offensive numbers to be great. And all that talk about his speed? 6 stolen bases, 6 times caught stealing.
- Marcus Giles is a good player, but he still hasn't put up the consistent career numbers that make me believe that 2003 was for real. He also has his own injury issues.
- Rafael Furcal is another good player, but he may be another one whose hype is larger than his abilities. A .758 OPS just doesn't cut it, and 29 steals by a speedy, weak hitting player is not stellar.
- Chipper Jones had a terrible first half last season, but I think he's actually the one player in this list that's for real. I like him.
- Johnny Estrada is not the second coming of Pudge. While his .314 AVG dazzled some observers, his 9 HRs and .828 OPS were more indicative of his average abilities. A good hitter for a catcher to be sure, but nothing to build a lineup around.
- Adam LaRoche had a good season last year, considering his age, with a .821 OPS. But again, he's still developing, and for all we know, he's the next Ben Grieve.
- One thing that's true, however, is that their team defense is pretty good.

They have some interesting rookies coming up (Andy Marte), but the more I look at it, the Braves are NOT that great this year. They have a lot of hype surrounding them - whether it's hype around their rotation, or hype around their players like Andruw Jones and Furcal. But that hype is unjustified or, well, misplaced.

Call me crazy, but I think the Phillies may just be okay when all is said and done.

As a Philadelphia born-and-raised sports fan, I have a secondary love of the Athletics, given their roots and Philly heritage. So while I'm not as bleeding-green passionate about the A's as Oakland natives, part of me was sad to see Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder get traded away from the A's within the span of 3 days.

But as I saw exactly who the A's received in return and as I saw just how the starting 9 and the starting rotation was shaping up, I began to realize that there's a reason why Billy Beane is the GM of the A's and not me. He plain and simple just has a great ability to see the whole picture.

Start with his rotation... he now has pretty much every highly regarded pitching prospect this side of Jose Cappellan and Scott Kazmir. His rotation now boasts 4 or 5 potential "aces" (despite how easily that term is sometimes thrown around):

Barry Zito: his stock has slipped, but he's still very young and still has that killer curve.
Rich Harden: became the real deal last season by being the most consistent starter for the A's.
Joe Blanton: supposedly better than Rich Harden, and we'll get to see in 2005.
Dan Meyer: someone the Braves, who know a thing or two about pitchers, considered their best talent in the minors... better even than Jose Cappellan (who apparently had just one plus pitch, his fastball).
Danny Haren: another stud prospect that we've been hearing about for a while now from the Cards organization.

They'll probably struggle this year, especially given Texas' and Anaheim's offenses and Seattle's apparent improvement to their lineup. That said, they may also develop into an interesting rotation. I believe they'll struggle, and the A's will be a below .500 team -- there's just too much offensive talent in that AL West and the AL East for these youngsters to succeed. But 2006? That's another question. These guys may just be a "Super 5" come 2006, and now every starter is signed for either two years (Zito) or 4-5 years (everyone else). At that price (lots of rookie contracts), there's no greater value in the whole major leagues.

Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder are definitely great. BUT:

1. They both had some recurring injuries last year, and as such present some risk to the A's.
2. Mulder was downright TERRIBLE in the second half. If that's what the Cardinals are getting, their search for an ace is not over.
3. They were going to be incredibly expensive after their contracts ran.

Yes, Mulder was going to be an A for a couple more years, but his comments about his grief over Hudson's departure was someone alarming ... he was going to leave after his contract, and he seemed to want to go to Atlanta that minute! Why not then trade him now, get what you can, and not wait till his value drops either because of another off year or a perception of having to trade him? I actually think the Mulder trade was BETTER than the Hudson trade, given that Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton is an amazing trio of young players to get at once.

They now have young talent that is cheap and, well, talented. Nick Swisher, Bobby Crosby, Charles Thomas, the pitchers, Juan Cruz, Kiko Calero.... these guys will play and play hard. Add to that Eric Chavez and Jason Kendall... and this team has attitude. And finally, remember Daric Barton's inclusion, and you realize that this team even has a future ready for after Kendall loses a step.

Bottom line: This team is going to be great, maybe not in 2005, maybe not even in 2006... but it'll definitely be great in 2007 and beyond. A's fans should rejoice... they have a GM who's bold, creative, and intelligent, and he knows what he's doing.

Placido Polanco returns! I'm not sure the Phillies were expecting that (none of us were, for sure)... and I'm not sure where he'll play (PLEASE TRADE DAVID BELL), but I'm just happy to have his character and leadership and abilities on this team. Maybe there's hope yet...

Also, I'm announcing a new blogger: Mike Huttenlocher. Check out his sports blog, linked to the right (Hutt's Sports Ramblings). He may be a Mets fan and a NY Giants fan, but I can vouch for his sports knowledge, and his site will have some great commentary. It's a good read for sure!