All Things Baseball

Buster Olney has written what is (so far) a fascinating account of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner, and their collapse beginning with their loss to Arizona in the 2001 World Series. I've only read the first 4 chapters (I've only owned it for about 15 hrs), but so far it is chock full of an insider's account of Steinbrenner's maniacal tendencies, Cashman's woes, and the perspectives of every Yankee from that 1996-2000 championship run.

I'll leave it to you to read the book and see what Olney says, but suffice it to say that one of his bottom lines is that Steinbrenner in recent years has killed his team by signing declining stars to expensive and long contracts, depleting his minor leagues to the point of absurdity, and creating an atmosphere of tension around the clubhouse.

Sound somewhat familiar?

Now, the Phillies aren't 100% similar to the Yankees by any stretch of the imagination. But surprisingly, they're not that far. Just take away all the tradition (at least, the *winning* tradition) and about 100 million dollars from the salary total, and you kinda have the Phillies! Take a closer look:

At $95.3 million, the Phillies have the 4th highest payroll ... the 4th highest! Now, after all our years of complaining that we were such a great market with a terribly low payroll, it seems kinda whiny to now complain about the 95 million. But I'm not complaining about the 95 million... I'm complaining about the players it has brought. Note however, I can't really complain about Pat Burrell or Jim Thome. Both of those signings were lauded at the time they were made, and justifiably so. After all, Pat Burrell was coming off a .289, 37 hr (or something like that) campaign, and Jim Thome was the perfect signing for a new Phillies team. Obviously, though, neither contract looks that great right now.

My problem is more general... for $95 million, we have a terribly low number of exciting players. David Bell? Placido Polanco? Cory Lidle? Randy Wolf? Rheal Cormier? Where's the life?

Certainly not in our minors, which brings us to another similarity. Ironically, we were blasting Ed Wade for holding on to certain prospects instead of getting a big gun (ie: NOT A MIDDLE RELIEVER). However, what we've done is trade a lot of draft picks, a lot of middle prospects, and we've received very very little back.

Our minors are a combined 20-50 (approximately). Our top pitcher, depending on who you ask, just got shipped down from the Phillies to AAA (Gavin Floyd) or just broke his hand in a bar fight (Cole Hamels). Our top positional player is in single-A ball. The other top prospects are projects. There is no Andy Marte, there is no Felix Rodriguez, and there is no Delmon Young.

Again, I know, hindsight is 20/20. But that's the point of Olney's book. In the midst of pursuing immediate help, the cost was to deplete the minors. It's an easy trap to fall into, but the consequences are long-felt. It'll take some time for this team to really be a true contender. We'll need to actually draft and develop some real players. Trading ppl like Burrell and Polanco and even Ryan Howard will help. (I'd keep Thome, bad back and all, b/c in the end, he's an iconic-type of player, and we'll need those).

Another upshot from Buster Olney's book: Hopefully Cashman will be fired by the Yankees soon, b/c then the Phillies can hire him. THAT would be heavenly.

And so, after I picked him up off the free agent wire in March, I decided that I would stick with him for the whole season, just in case he finally put it all together. After all, this is the guy who was touted as the next Curt Schilling! Last year, in Sports Illustrated, one scout ranked his "stuff" to be better than Rich Harden's. His curveball had always been nasty, his fastball always fast enough, and all he needed was to put it together mentally.

Apparently, all he also needed was a cutter. Lately, it's come out that he added a cutter to his repertoire over the winter (perhaps the idea of Rich Dubee?) and this cutter has given him another out pitch that he can use deep in the count.

Well, something has worked, whether it's his new cutter, or his new mental state (brought perhaps by his recently born child? that can always add perspective to one's life), or simply the passage of time. Remember, this guy is only 24 years old! Seems like he should be at least 27 or 28 given all the criticism he's endured over the past few years. And I'll admit, in one of my earlier posts, I told the Phillies to trade him. Thank god he's still a Phillie, and thank god he's on my fantasy team.

What's he done this year? Only a 1.25 ERA and .95 WHIP (approximately). Only about 9.4 K per 9 IP. Only a 5 to 1 K to BB ratio. Only been the most dominant starter on the Phillies this side of Lieber. It's been amazing to see... I've seen a few of his games on TV, and he's always in control. He's not going for the K's but he's getting them in handfuls. I saw him put Victor Diaz away with 5 straight heaters. His cutter has frozen lefties.

So will he keep it up? That's the question of the day, and the fantasy question addressed by my post today. This is a guy who has shown brilliance in flashes but who always reverted back to his dog day ways. (a la Pat Burrell) But I see no reason to doubt his continued excellence for this year and beyond. Why? What's new?

1. His cutter. It just gives his fastball another dimension. It's not just a straight fastball, a changeup or a curveball any more. Now he's got a cutter to mix in there, and now his pitches work on more than on plane than just the straight or 12-6 plane. It's like he's got 3 dimensions with his pitches now.

2. His new kid. I'm sure everyone reacts differently when they become new parents. Seems like Brett has found some perspective, which is exactly what he needed on the diamond. When he got in trouble, he pitched harder and harder, perhaps more tensely. Now, maybe he realizes that he doesn't need to grip it harder, that he can get out of these jams no problem.

3. His physical fitness. Now, down in Florida, I saw him jogging after a start, and he's not exactly Gabe Kapler. But he's no longer heading towards David Wells either (he was getting a bit fat last year, you gotta admit). This can only help.

Add all these to his already established bulldog attitude (funny how commentators are starting to rehash his whole "used to be a boxer" background now that he's doing well this year... sure makes for a better story when the pitcher is actually dominating) and his already established "stuff" (no one ever denied that he had a great curveball) and you know what? I think we may finally have the top of the rotation starter that we've been dreaming Brett would become. And so, my fantasy prognostication?

16-8: Hopefully the run support will finally kick in consistently.
2.80 ERA: It'll go back up, perhaps after the obligatory blow out he endures, but something tells me it'll be sub-3.00.
1.21 WHIP: Also will go up, but the elite pitchers have their WHIPs in the 1.15-1.25 region.
230 IP: He's never had injury issues, knock on wood.
215 Ks: Gotta love what he's doing on the mound.
53 BBs: Just a guess obviously, but I like his command so far.

Now that I've written this, of course, he'll end up at 4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and a stint on the DL for elbow tendonitis.