All Things Baseball

Still here

2006-09-26T22:59:00.000-04:00

Still here, just haven't had too much time to post - but it's not like anyone's reading anyway. Go Phillies!

Exciting times?

2005-11-07T22:23:00.000-05:00

After a long long long layoff - what can I say? Got married, took the bar exam, moved to Boston, spent 3 weeks in Australia - I just wanted to write a quick post:

First off, a small requiem for Ed Wade. I can't really say I'll miss him, but I just wish we had hired Gerry Hunsicker instead of Pat Gillick. But hey, you can't have everything, and I definitely am glad to see the Wade-ster outta here.

Second, please please please trade Burrell or Abreu (whichever one will get you more in a good SP and 3B) or perhaps package Thome and Bell for the nearest young 3B. Beltre could be nice, but I really doubt anyone would do that deal. I'd settle for Edwin Encarnacion or something like him (since the Reds wouldn't do that deal either).

Finally, congrats to Ryan Howard! Basically wrote the ticket out for Thome, I guess.

More substance later, though I must admit the Philly blog scene is pretty fruitful without me right now.

2 week break for my wedding

2005-05-16T10:11:00.000-04:00

Hi all,

I'll be taking the next two weeks off for my wedding and honeymoon. In the meantime, could someone fire Ed Wade, hire Brian Cashman away from the Yankees, and trade Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell and Placido Polanco and Cory Lidle? Thanks very much! Hopefully when I get back, the Phillies will have a winning record. (ha!)

"The Last Night of the Yankees Dynasty" and Implications for the Phillies

2005-05-11T16:43:00.000-04:00

Buster Olney has written what is (so far) a fascinating account of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner, and their collapse beginning with their loss to Arizona in the 2001 World Series. I've only read the first 4 chapters (I've only owned it for about 15 hrs), but so far it is chock full of an insider's account of Steinbrenner's maniacal tendencies, Cashman's woes, and the perspectives of every Yankee from that 1996-2000 championship run.

I'll leave it to you to read the book and see what Olney says, but suffice it to say that one of his bottom lines is that Steinbrenner in recent years has killed his team by signing declining stars to expensive and long contracts, depleting his minor leagues to the point of absurdity, and creating an atmosphere of tension around the clubhouse.

Sound somewhat familiar?

Now, the Phillies aren't 100% similar to the Yankees by any stretch of the imagination. But surprisingly, they're not that far. Just take away all the tradition (at least, the *winning* tradition) and about 100 million dollars from the salary total, and you kinda have the Phillies! Take a closer look:

At $95.3 million, the Phillies have the 4th highest payroll ... the 4th highest! Now, after all our years of complaining that we were such a great market with a terribly low payroll, it seems kinda whiny to now complain about the 95 million. But I'm not complaining about the 95 million... I'm complaining about the players it has brought. Note however, I can't really complain about Pat Burrell or Jim Thome. Both of those signings were lauded at the time they were made, and justifiably so. After all, Pat Burrell was coming off a .289, 37 hr (or something like that) campaign, and Jim Thome was the perfect signing for a new Phillies team. Obviously, though, neither contract looks that great right now.

My problem is more general... for $95 million, we have a terribly low number of exciting players. David Bell? Placido Polanco? Cory Lidle? Randy Wolf? Rheal Cormier? Where's the life?

Certainly not in our minors, which brings us to another similarity. Ironically, we were blasting Ed Wade for holding on to certain prospects instead of getting a big gun (ie: NOT A MIDDLE RELIEVER). However, what we've done is trade a lot of draft picks, a lot of middle prospects, and we've received very very little back.

Our minors are a combined 20-50 (approximately). Our top pitcher, depending on who you ask, just got shipped down from the Phillies to AAA (Gavin Floyd) or just broke his hand in a bar fight (Cole Hamels). Our top positional player is in single-A ball. The other top prospects are projects. There is no Andy Marte, there is no Felix Rodriguez, and there is no Delmon Young.

Again, I know, hindsight is 20/20. But that's the point of Olney's book. In the midst of pursuing immediate help, the cost was to deplete the minors. It's an easy trap to fall into, but the consequences are long-felt. It'll take some time for this team to really be a true contender. We'll need to actually draft and develop some real players. Trading ppl like Burrell and Polanco and even Ryan Howard will help. (I'd keep Thome, bad back and all, b/c in the end, he's an iconic-type of player, and we'll need those).

Another upshot from Buster Olney's book: Hopefully Cashman will be fired by the Yankees soon, b/c then the Phillies can hire him. THAT would be heavenly.

The Fantasy Value of Mr. Brett Myers (Part 2)

2005-05-10T10:59:00.000-04:00

And so, after I picked him up off the free agent wire in March, I decided that I would stick with him for the whole season, just in case he finally put it all together. After all, this is the guy who was touted as the next Curt Schilling! Last year, in Sports Illustrated, one scout ranked his "stuff" to be better than Rich Harden's. His curveball had always been nasty, his fastball always fast enough, and all he needed was to put it together mentally.

Apparently, all he also needed was a cutter. Lately, it's come out that he added a cutter to his repertoire over the winter (perhaps the idea of Rich Dubee?) and this cutter has given him another out pitch that he can use deep in the count.

Well, something has worked, whether it's his new cutter, or his new mental state (brought perhaps by his recently born child? that can always add perspective to one's life), or simply the passage of time. Remember, this guy is only 24 years old! Seems like he should be at least 27 or 28 given all the criticism he's endured over the past few years. And I'll admit, in one of my earlier posts, I told the Phillies to trade him. Thank god he's still a Phillie, and thank god he's on my fantasy team.

What's he done this year? Only a 1.25 ERA and .95 WHIP (approximately). Only about 9.4 K per 9 IP. Only a 5 to 1 K to BB ratio. Only been the most dominant starter on the Phillies this side of Lieber. It's been amazing to see... I've seen a few of his games on TV, and he's always in control. He's not going for the K's but he's getting them in handfuls. I saw him put Victor Diaz away with 5 straight heaters. His cutter has frozen lefties.

So will he keep it up? That's the question of the day, and the fantasy question addressed by my post today. This is a guy who has shown brilliance in flashes but who always reverted back to his dog day ways. (a la Pat Burrell) But I see no reason to doubt his continued excellence for this year and beyond. Why? What's new?

1. His cutter. It just gives his fastball another dimension. It's not just a straight fastball, a changeup or a curveball any more. Now he's got a cutter to mix in there, and now his pitches work on more than on plane than just the straight or 12-6 plane. It's like he's got 3 dimensions with his pitches now.

2. His new kid. I'm sure everyone reacts differently when they become new parents. Seems like Brett has found some perspective, which is exactly what he needed on the diamond. When he got in trouble, he pitched harder and harder, perhaps more tensely. Now, maybe he realizes that he doesn't need to grip it harder, that he can get out of these jams no problem.

3. His physical fitness. Now, down in Florida, I saw him jogging after a start, and he's not exactly Gabe Kapler. But he's no longer heading towards David Wells either (he was getting a bit fat last year, you gotta admit). This can only help.

Add all these to his already established bulldog attitude (funny how commentators are starting to rehash his whole "used to be a boxer" background now that he's doing well this year... sure makes for a better story when the pitcher is actually dominating) and his already established "stuff" (no one ever denied that he had a great curveball) and you know what? I think we may finally have the top of the rotation starter that we've been dreaming Brett would become. And so, my fantasy prognostication?

16-8: Hopefully the run support will finally kick in consistently.
2.80 ERA: It'll go back up, perhaps after the obligatory blow out he endures, but something tells me it'll be sub-3.00.
1.21 WHIP: Also will go up, but the elite pitchers have their WHIPs in the 1.15-1.25 region.
230 IP: He's never had injury issues, knock on wood.
215 Ks: Gotta love what he's doing on the mound.
53 BBs: Just a guess obviously, but I like his command so far.

Now that I've written this, of course, he'll end up at 4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and a stint on the DL for elbow tendonitis.

The Fantasy Value of Mr. Brett Myers (Part 1)

2005-05-06T18:26:00.000-04:00

There are several hot pitchers right now in terms of fantasy baseball free agent pickups (that is, they stunk before the season started and now, after a string of 4 to 6 great starts, everyone is hopping on them). Erik Bedard from Baltimore, John Patterson from Washington, and John Thomson from Atlanta are only some of those ... but for today, let's talk about Brett Myers.

The year before I went to law school, I took some time off and drove cross country. That was the summer that Brett Myers was about to be called up from AAA, and I was excited. Here was this 6-3 (whatever he is) pitcher who drew comparisons to Curt Schilling, a former boxer who wouldn't back down from the challenges of the MLB, and a guy who didn't take losing lightly. I was checking Yahoo (for my fantasy leagues) daily in my motel rooms to see if he was called up and available in my league, and sure enough, he got called up (and I had the #1 waiver priority! A plan from the start that season b/c I wanted Brett Myers).

Then his first start - remember that gem?? Keep in mind, this was also the year that Mark Prior made his debut, and the world was abuzz with his talents... and then Brett Myers comes up, 20 something years old, and he strikes out something like 8 in his first start, with no earned runs. A win, with many K's... Mark Prior joined the list (with Curt Schilling) of pitchers Brett Myers was going to compare with favorably. His first year finished well enough, with the usual rookie bumps, but it was clear that he was destined for greatness... Philly history be damned.

I am in a keeper league, and I had Brett Myers slated to be a keeper for the next 10 years. But then, something happened along the way to the Hall... He started to plateau! And not in a good place... he plateaued at a 5.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP clip. For two seasons.

I was distraught, what to do?

I traded him.

But then before last season, scouts talked about the effect Kevin Millwood was having on him, how he was taking to Millwood's ethic and style. He started well last year too, and I thought, he's finally here! So.. I traded for him again. And lo and behold, he began to absolutely stink. As Angelo Cataldi would put it, he was a stinkin' bum. Another 5.00, 1.30 season, and you know what? He was no longer keeper material. At the ripe old age of 24, Brett Myers was washed up! I myself wrote this spring that the Phillies should trade him the first chance they get... right here on this blog!

In my league, he went undrafted till about the 27th round, where I decided to draft him for kicks. But before the season started, after seeing him once down in Florida during my bachelor party (at Spring Training), I dropped him to the wire. And there he remained (unclaimed) till I realized that if he starts to rock, and he's not on my team, I'd be semi-pissed (to put it mildly... I take fantasy baseball seriously, as I'm sure I'll post later).

So I picked him up, in March, right before the season started.

(To be continued)

State of the Phillies

2005-05-05T10:20:00.000-04:00

After a bit of a vacation, I'm back writing my baseball blog. I took a break to commit myself to finishing up law school well, especially my clinic where I was working as a public defender, but now it's all over (3 yrs of tuition, good bye!) and I can finally commit to my baseball blog....

... Which brings me to the unenviable task of having to address the Phillies. As Jayson Stark so eloquently put it in a recent ESPN column, this team is easily the most perplexing in the majors. Seems like everyone said that this team on paper was built to contend in the NL East. Of course, they said that we'd win the East last year. And Baseball Prospectus did their math and said we'd end up with 90+ wins. And the list goes on. But what's happened? We're in LAST... behind the Nationals? Behind the Mets? How? Why?

Is it the manager? I don't think so. If anything, this year tells us it's probably not the manager. Now, I'm glad Bowa is gone, b/c I don't even think there was the potential of improvement under his angry command, and I do wish the Phillies had hired Leyland instead of Manuel... but Charlie Manuel has been pretty good at keeping even keel throughout the struggles, and I think that is an important feature (just look at Andy Reid). And the guys Manuel brought in as assistant coaches seem to be doing their jobs - well, at least the pitching coach Dubee. Milt the hitting coach might need a little fire under his butt to get our guys going, but what do I know.

Is it the pitching? Well, our bullpen has been less than advertised. Randy Wolf looks lost. Padilla is still recovering from his lack of spring training. Lidle is still just Lidle. But Lieber has been superb, Myers has finally been the guy he's supposed to become, and we still have Floyd in the wings. So I'm not worried.

Is it the hitting? Short answer, yes but with conditions. Long answer, probably this is a major part of the problem. David Bell isn't producing. Burrell's production is too herky jerky and not consistent from game to game. Abreu has been cold, but that's normal for his Aprils. Thome has been non-existent, of course. Utley hasn't played enough games. Our CF position is atrocious, especially without Lofton (I never thought I'd say that!). Lieberthal has hit the wall. Rollins is still Rollins, for whatever that means.

Is it the atmosphere? For some unknown reason, YES. Absolutely. We have no one exciting. (Beltran anyone?) We have no one who's a true take charge leader. Rollins is nice for both, but not the answer. All we have are guys who are good but who like to keep quiet, it seems.

What can be done? Trade Polanco for one thing - it's addition by subtraction. Utley will play more, and Polanco's annoying attitude can be taken out. As for Howard, given Thome's situation, I'd say we actually have to keep this guy around. At least till June or so. Perhaps wait till then to trade Polanco too? I don't know. We can also trade Lidle - I'd rather have Floyd in there. Who to acquire? No idea. Our big chance was at Beltran last winter. I'm still depressed that we didn't make a full out effort to get him, and I don't buy the money thing. Can you imagine the OF of Abreu, Beltran, Burrell?

I'm obviously living in a fantasy world still, but this team needs a dose of fantasy for sure. At least us fans do.

Lack of Updates; Spring Training News!

2005-01-19T21:07:00.000-05:00

Well, sorry for the lack of updates. Plain and simple, nothing the Phillies are doing is really inspiring me. I'm glad Rollins re-signed, though only for the short term. Perhaps that means it won't be another salary that the Phillies will be saddled with down the line. Polanco came to terms, and 4.6 million is a LOT for him. Jose Offerman is on the minor league team, and I hope to God that Shane Victorio beats him out.

And... that's it. Now, it's a waiting game for Spring Training, which I'm excited to announce I'll be at! Yes, that's right, for my bachelor party, my buddies and I are heading to Florida for a weekend to catch some baseballs and ball games. I'll be the one in the powderblue 1970's Phillies jersey.

As if I needed more false hope...

2005-01-17T13:08:00.000-05:00

From Ken Rosenthal of the Sporting News...

"What would A's general manager Billy Beane be worth as a free agent? The answer might come if Lewis Wolff purchases the club. Beane, signed through 2008, can opt out of his contract if the team changes owners. Wolff almost certainly would want Beane to stay, but the Nationals could pursue Beane once their new owner is in place. Two highly regarded former general managers, Pat Gillick and Gerry Hunsicker, also are available. The Phillies' Ed Wade could be the next G.M. in trouble."

Oh why do you tease us Mr. Wade?

2005-01-12T10:34:00.001-05:00

From today's Philly Inquirer:

"General manager Ed Wade understands the perception that the Phillies have taken a step backward, although he doesn't agree with it. "It's the nature of our game that people view it a certain way," Wade said."

Okay, I'm gonna put my new-found optimism aside for a moment. Don't worry, I'll be returning to my 92-70 optimistic ways later. But come on, Ed Wade. That's the best you can do? That's the most inspirational you can get?

John Schuerholz goes and shores up his rotation. Successful? Many say yes, I say no, but we all can agree that he did everything he could and that he made the right decisions in bringing in Tim Hudson.

Omar Minaya goes to visit and ultimately sign Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran to patch up some glaring holes in his team. Successful? Many say yes, I still say no, but we all can agree that the Mets had one of the better offseasons given their expectations and low fan turnouts (I've been to Shea a couple times the last few years, and I can tell you it's a desolate desolate place).

The Florida Marlins bring in Al Leiter to complement their already young and good rotation, are trying to bring in Carlos Delgado, and were able to keep their thirdbaseman Mike Lowell in the fold. Successful? People say they'll be better than the Phillies, I say probably not, but they're also making the best moves they can.

The Phillies? Well, the year that one of the best CF's ever was on the market, the year that several great young pitchers were on the market, the year that the Athletics were selling 2 of their vaunted Big Three, the year that the 3B who ties Schmidt's HR record for a right handed 3Bman is a free agent, what did we end up with?

Kenny Lofton, Age 39 (or so).
Jon Lieber, Age 34 (or so), with a recovering ligament.
Terry Adams, who cares how old he is.
Cory Lidle
Placido Polanco at the low low price of 4 million.

YES we took a step back. NO it's not b/c of the nature of the game making ppl take different perspectives. YES the Phillies could have done a LOT more.

But fine. Enough complaining. Go Phillies.

Oh why do you tease us Mr. Wade?

2005-01-12T10:34:00.000-05:00

An Overview of the NL East: Part One - Phillies

2005-01-11T11:04:00.000-05:00

Well, I've decided to turn a new leaf. No more doom and gloom. No more pessimism. No more trashing of Ed Wade. Maybe.

The Inquirer may have finally come out with an article criticizing Ed Wade for his inactivity this offseason. And yes, the Phillies let the one player that they most needed just pass them by into the NL East rivals Mets. And yes, their pitching staff is turning out to be pretty mediocre.

It's true, I wish they had traded for Dioner Navarro and Javier Vazquez. And as Stefan as pointed out in his good comments, it's probably not going to happen. Definitely not for Navarro, as he's gone to the Dodgers, but also probably not for Vazquez, because if he's traded, he's probably going to the Orioles. Plus, if I were being truly honest, the Phillies have no one to offer outside Hamels and Floyd and Utley, and the Wade-ster just isn't going to let them go.

But chalk me up as someone who still believes that the Phillies can win this NL East. How? Well, let's take a look at each franchise, one at a time, excluding the Nationals, b/c I see them as a AAA team that's been promoted to the bigs. Plus I have no idea who their pitching staff has, despite my obsession with fantasy baseball. So they seem a little irrelevant.

Let's start with the Phillies:

Projected Lineup:

CF Lofton
SS Rollins
RF Abreu
1B Thome
LF Burrell
3B Bell
C Lieberthal
2B Utley

Best case scenario: Lofton will be rejuvenated by his reunion with Thome and Charlie Manuel, and the ballpark will rekindle his stats. He'll be a consistent OBP guy (somewhere around .390). Rollins will take the next step and prove last season wasn't a mirage (a la Marlon Byrd). Lofton and Rollins will routinely set the table for Abreu and Thome, who'll put up 130 RBI's each. Thome will stop striking out so much, though it'll be okay if he still K's, b/c Burrell will rediscover his 2002 form and hit .290, .980 OPS, with 40 HRs and 120 RBI's. Bell will be the "good" David Bell, not the "injured, weak" David Bell, and he'll be the clubhouse glue to boot. Or else, Bell will get hurt and Polanco will play 3B full time. Lieberthal will defy Father Time and hit a solid .275, with 15 hrs and 70 RBI's. Utley will show me why Ed Wade values him so DAMN much (sorry), and he'll validate his minor league numbers with a .280, .890 OPS, 23 HR, 70 RBI campaign.

Worst case scenario: Lofton will show his age and will show why he hasn't been a starter the last few years, batting .250 with a meager .330 OBP. He'll be replaced with Jason Michaels in June. Rollins will continue to think he's Roberto Alomar and will try to hit 35 HR's, managing to hit 23 but striking out 110 times. With no one on base, Abreu will be pitched around and Thome will be struck out more often than not. Burrell will show that 2003 was his true self, and he'll end up a .240 hitter, with 25 hrs before being traded in July to the Astros for Morgan Ensberg (talk about a worst case scenario!). David Bell will be hurt, and Placido Polanco will play 3B... but will tear an ACL. Utley proves me right and hits .250 with 10 hrs and no excitement. Lieberthal will go down with knee surgery and the Phillies will rely on Todd Pratt as their catcher.

Most likely scenario: I actually think the offense will be okay. I think Rollins will take the "best shortstop in the NL" label seriously, and I think Lofton will be a good influence on him. Lofton will probably end up a .270, .350, .450 hitter, which is serviceable, and he'll score 100 runs. Abreu I think is terrific and Thome will be happy to play for Manuel. Burrell will relax and should settle into his .275, 35 hr routine. Utley I'm hoping will be a productive hitter, but I don't know about him.

Pitching Rotation and Bullpen:

Jon Lieber
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Cory Lidle
Brett Myers

Ryan Madson
some other warm bodies
Billy Wagner

Best Case Scenario: Jon Lieber will pitch like the September and October monster he was, the guy who shut down the Red Sox offense in the playoffs. He'll go 19-6, with a 3.50 ERA, and he'll show Padilla how to be consistent. Randy Wolf will go back to his 2003 numbers, and he'll be injury-free all season long. He'll end up 16-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Padilla will finally harness his electric stuff, go injury-free, and end up 15-8 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Cory Lidle will be his productive version, going 10-9. Brett Myers will take his next (first?) step to being the next Curt Schilling and he'll end up being our 2nd best pitcher, going 15-4 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Ryan Madson will continue being lights out in the pen and Wagner will have a healthy shoulder all year long, posting 46 saves with only 3 blown saves.

Worst Case Scenario: Jon Lieber will get hurt again in May, or he'll be ineffective all year long, going 10-13. Wolf will get hurt again in May, or he'll be inconsistent all year long, going 12-11. Padilla will get hurt again in May, or he'll be wildly inconsistent all year long, going 10-13. Cory Lidle will be terrible. Brett Myers will take yet another step back and go 5-8 before being traded to the Tigers. Hitters will figure out that Ryan Madson has ONE good pitch and he'll be rocked, just as he was with every start he made in 2004. Wagner will get hurt again in May (sense a pattern?), and he'll end up with 15 saves.

Most Likely Scenario: Well, I think Lieber might be okay this year. He's a gamer, and he sure showed me a LOT in the playoffs last year. I think he's a 15 win pitcher. Wolf I think is better than we give him credit for, and his 2003 and 2002 seasons were pretty terrific. I think he'll also be a 15 win pitcher. Padilla, unfortunately, I think will be a dud again, and I think he goes 13-10. I think Myers will be bothered by the park again, and he'll go 10-10. Lidle I think is worthless and I can't believe he's on the staff. Madson might be okay, but he'll be less unhittable than last year, and I think Wagner will be terrific this year, b/c he's pissed about last season.

Conclusion:

It's unclear where exactly this team will end up. I have a feeling they'll contend for the division title, for real this time. Many people are putting the Braves as a clear-cut winner, or even the Mets, but as I'll show later, I just don't see it that way. The Phillies had a terrible offseason, no doubt, but when you look at it, they have fewer GLARING holes than the Braves or Mets. True, the Braves and Mets have some studs now, stars that the Phillies might not have (though Thome, Wagner and Abreu aren't peanuts)... but in terms of overall quality, the Phillies don't have that glaring hole. Just consistent concerns across the board. That may be good enough to go 92-70 and win the East. Or bad enough to go 70-92.

In my new optimism, I'll say 92-70.

Dark dark day for Phillies fans.

2005-01-09T14:49:00.000-05:00

In the world of sports-fandom, there's nothing worse than having the worst team in your division. The teams you hate are definitely better than yours, and that just plain hurts. And so, as a Phillies fan, it simply stinks seeing Beltran go to the Mets. Why?

1. Every team in the NL East WORKED to get better.

- Braves got Hudson, Kolb.
- Mets got Pedro, Beltran.
- Marlins got Leiter and are trying to get more.
- Nationals don't count yet.

- Phillies? They drop Millwood and Milton and sign Lieber. They get Lofton to replace Byrd and Michaels. So basically, they tread water while waiting for prospects to reach the bigs.

2. Beltran probably could have been gotten by the Phillies for enough money.

Is Beltran worth 119 million dollars? I don't know. He's definitely young, has the 5 tools, and is improving. But is ANY one player worth that much cap-constricting money? Well, if anyone is, it's Beltran. And hey guess where the Phillies have a gaping hole in their lineup and defense? Top of the order and CF... the two places Beltran resides.

Before the offseason, everyone felt that Beltran would go to the Yankees or stay with the Astros. Well guess what, the METS got him. The METS. Minaya may be inspirational, and he may have the Hispanic connection with Beltran, but don't tell me the Phillies couldn't have gotten him to man the new Philly stadium for the next 7 years. Too much money? Then trade Thome and put Howard there.

Will the Mets contend now? I don't think so. They have too many holes, too many injury-prone players. But at least they're giving themselves hope. Something the Phillies are running out of.

The Mess in Arizona and How the Phillies Can Hop Right In

2005-01-07T09:13:00.000-05:00

So it looks like the Shawn Green to Arizona deal may not happen, which quite honestly surprises me. But let's put LA (the REAL Los Angeles) aside and see what else could happen, should an enterprising GM, say... Ed Wade, take advantage of this.

The D-Backs now have TWO players that the Phillies could use, and as luck should have it, the D-Backs are willing to trade both players! Serendipity!

The Phillies need a better starting pitcher. Enter Javier Vazquez.
The Phillies also need a new young catcher to groom. Enter Dioner Navarro.

Hello Ed Wade, go trade for Vazquez and Navarro. Now. Right now. Right now while the D-Back's disappointment is fresh.

After the deal fell through, the D-Backs started looking into Jeromy Burnitz to replace Shawn Green. Well, I think the Phillies have something to offer.

Several names should immediately be thrown in by Wade: Randy Wolf, Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd, Placido Polanco, David Bell, Ryan Howard.

Somehow, some way, a combination of several of these players should get the Phillies Vazquez and Navarro.

How about Wolf, Myers and Howard? Too much you say? I don't.
Or maybe Myers, Byrd, and Howard? That might sound better to most.
Perhaps Wolf, Byrd, and Howard. Or Wolf, Polanco, Howard?

In any case, Byrd may be hard to trade, but maybe not... he's young, still has some talent somewhere buried in him. I'm surprised at his major step back last year.. I think he should still be in our lineup over Lofton. But that's just me. Howard is intriguing, yes, but in reality he's 25, strikes out a ton, and has no position outside 1B. So to the Phillies, he's useless. (I like Thome, I like his star appeal, and while he's expensive, I'd rather the Phillies keep him, unless they go get Beltran). Myers is the best of the names above, I believe... b/c of his age, skill, and mentality. He's been inconsistent, but so was Schilling, Unit, and others who became pretty great. Myers won't be THAT great in the end, but it's still not too late for him to become a terrific number 2 or 3.

If you can get Navarro and Vazquez, none of the players are worth enough to make them untouchable.

Dollars and No Sense: Looking at Team Salaries

2005-01-04T10:30:00.000-05:00

The MLB recently put out the 2004 figures for team salaries, and when compared with the figures over the past 4 years (back to 2000), there are some interesting things to note. Primarily, the Phillies are a weak organization (and it pains me to say it).

The top 10 teams in terms of salaries for 2004:

1. NY Yankees (187,918,394)
2. Boston (130, 395, 386)
3. Anaheim (115,608,812)
4. NY Mets (103,199,231)
5. LA Dodgers (101,682,464)
6. Chicago Cubs (100,653,389)
7. PHILLIES (97,380,476)
8. St. Louis (92,816,050)
9. San Francisco (82,404,615)
10. Houston (81,903,157)

Some quick thoughts:
- Where is Atlanta??? They're number 12 at 79,445,468. That's right, nearly 20 million less than the Phillies, 25 million less than the Mets. And that's not a team of nobodies: Smoltz, the Joneses, Marcus Giles, and now Tim Hudson... that's just a well run team.
- Obviously, the Mets are an even worse-run team than the Phillies, and their signing of Pedro for 4 yrs and pursuit of Beltran at 18 mil/yr simply confirm their short-sighted way of spending dollars.
- You can see why the Giants failed to make the playoffs... even with Barry Bonds on their payroll, their salary was "only" 82 million, meaning that they had no talent around Mr. Sherman Tank, aka Barry ".900 slg" Bonds.
- The Phillies spent more money than St. Louis (NL Champs), Houston (NL Runner-ups), and Atlanta. Nothing to show for it.

A closer look at Philly's history:
2000: 45.7 million
2001: 47 million
2002: 61.5 million
2003: 71.5 million
2004: 97.4 million

That's a steady increase in dollars spent for sure. And if anyone remembers, 2000 and 2001 were pretty dark years. As was just about all of the 1990's, save 1993. So I guess a lot of the criticism surrounding the Phillies that they're not spending the money or are acting like a small market team is misguided. They ARE spending money! But there's been nothing to show for it, not even a playoff appearance in this wild-card era. And perhaps that means that they've spent their money on the wrong players.

It's hard to criticize the last few free agent moves/trades that they've made though. Jim Thome was a heady signing... exciting times for this starved baseball team. At the time, David Bell was a hot commodity, being the clubhouse "winner" that lots of teams seek. Perhaps he was overpaid, but that's what bad teams need to do to get the players. Billy Wagner was a coup, given that Brandon Duckworth was pretty worthless. But here's the thing.... this club, in 2004, underproduced. They underproduced terribly.

When a team underproduces that poorly, lots of GM's take that as a sign that they need to fix things, take bold steps. It sure seems like, however, that Ed Wade's response is: "I have faith in our players. They're good players. Just wait till next year. These guys will win." In the mean time, Mulder changes teams. Hudson changes teams. Matt Clement is available. Odalis Perez is out there. Beltre is a free agent. Beltran is out there. Wade Miller signs for 1.5 million. Carl Pavano signs. These are big time names, exciting players. And who gets them? St Louis, Atlanta, Boston, Yankees, Seattle. Big time teams. Getting the big time players.

Bottom line: Just spending money doesn't make you a big time franchise. Actually getting the players is what does it. And unless we manage to get Vazquez, this offseason will rank as one of the worst in terms of opportunities lost. Even that won't fully save it anyway.

Could Ed Wade actually trade Randy Wolf?

2005-01-03T13:45:00.000-05:00

With Randy Johnson reportedly on his way to the Yankees for Javier Vazquez et al., and with Shawn Green reportedly on his way to Arizona for, well, NOT for Javier Vazquez, an interesting situation arises. Vazquez apparently wishes to stay on the East coast. The Phillies are rumored to be interested in trading Randy Wolf for Javier Vazquez.

With the moves that the rest of the NL East has made (Tim Hudson to the Braves, Pedro Martinez to the Mets, Al Leiter to the Marlins), and with the under-production of the pitching staff last year (goodbye Millwood), there is something to the argument that the Phillies desperately need a top-line young ace to build around.

Cole Hamels is a long ways away. Gavin Floyd is closer, but Brett Myers is becoming a cautionary tale. Ryan Madson was great last year, but only in a relief role. As a starter, Madson was decidedly less impressive. Padilla was better than his record indicates, but Wolf had injury issues, Lieber IS an injury issue, and Cory Lidle won't scare anyone who's not a Phillie fan.

For these reasons, a trade of Randy Wolf for Javier Vazquez would be terrific. There are caveats: (1) It would leave the Phillies without a LHP in their rotation. I'm not so worried about this... I feel that having lefties in the bullpen is much more important than in the starting rotation... that's where the matchups really come into play in any significant way. (2) Vazquez was terrible last season, but I'm not worried - he obviously didn't like the AL, and something tells me he's kinda angry about the press he's received out of New York.

He's in his 20's. He's put up crazy numbers in the past. He's got the ubiquitous "nasty stuff". And he wants to stay on the East Coast. The Yankees envisioned him as their ace for years to come.... he may have failed in NY, but he just might be great in Philly.

Go get him Ed Wade!

Brief respite from the holidays - Philly and Ed Wade

2004-12-30T14:29:00.000-05:00

Hello all, from Philadelphia. I finally managed to get onto the internet for a short while (hello Barnes and Noble), and just thought I'd post a quickie while I'm here. I still plan on returning full time to this blog on January 2nd.

While here, I've been listening to 610 WIP sports talk radio - one of my favorites. I remember back in the day when Steve Fredericks and Mike Micanelli were on together, and their show was absolutely hilarious. I think I heard Mike Micanelli again the other day, which was great - he's still funny, and Anthony Gargano is very good right now too.

While most of the talk was centered on the Eagles, there was a quick segment on the Phillies - and it seems that many people share my feelings that Ed Wade is a GM who lacks creativity. As the talk show hosts put it - Ed Wade just lacks imagination, the ability to pull off theh big deals that will allow them to actually beat Atlanta. And they made an interesting point - with a little bit of ingenuity, they could have traded Jim Thome, stayed away from Lofton, and ended up with Hudson, Beltran, Ryan Howard at first... and SAVED MONEY.

Now, I don't think Beltran would come here, unless we actually paid the 20 million a year. But I do believe that Tim Hudson could have come here (WHY do we care so much about Ryan Madson and Chase Utley), and I do believe that Ryan Howard should be traded now or played in the big leagues.

But the key point I come away with is that they could have SAVED money! Meaning, we may now be spending some money (about 95 million last year, good for 7th in the MLB), but we are definitely NOT using that money well. More on this later, after I return. But suffice it to say, we need to get rid of Ed Wade. Otherwise, there is no way we will ever contend for the World Series.

Boston's new rotation; Happy Holidays all!

2004-12-23T11:14:00.000-05:00

Man, the Red Sox have many moves that I wish the Phillies had made. I'm assuming Wade Miller's shoulder is more problematic than is being let on, because otherwise I have no idea why Houston would simply non-tender such a young, talented pitcher. He passed his physical, but as Pedro has shown, a "physical" is by no means a constant. In any case, Boston's rotation, which had taken a hit with Pedro's departure and Pavano's rejection, now shapes up to be interesting, if not exciting.

Curt Schilling
David Wells
Matt Clement
Wade Miller
Bronson Arroyo, with Tim Wakefield in the pen.

I had thought that the Sox would go get Odalis Perez, but Wade Miller's unexpected availability may have shifted their attention. In any case, this is one of those moderate-risk/high reward rotations... Schilling we know about, ankle and all, but Wells, Clement and Miller all can put up very interesting numbers, with high K/BB or K/9IP rates. In addition, there's an good balance of RHP and LHP's, and a good mix of groundball and flyball pitchers. In short, this is a rotation that could end up being average or great, but at the very least, Theo Epstein went out and tried the big moves.

(segue into conservative moves of Ed Wade)

In any case, Happy Holidays to all! I'll be taking a break until January 2nd, so I wanted to thank the people who read my blog and comment on my posts. Hope you all have a safe holiday season, and I'll be talking to you all again after the new year.

Braves are all hype and weaker than you think (w/o JD Drew):

2004-12-22T10:38:00.000-05:00

Reports are that JD Drew has signed with the Dodgers for 5 years, $55 million. As a Phillies fanatic, I am proud to say that I detest JD Drew and Scott Boras. I loved that the Phillies tried to draft this guy and take a principled stand (no $10 million bonus), and while hindsight shows that this move definitely hurt the Phillies, I really didn't mind what they tried to do. And I also developed an instant animosity towards St. Louis when they drafted Drew the next year, even after several teams let him pass.

That said, JD Drew had an amazing year last season for the Braves. He finally managed to play a DL-free season, and in 145 games, he put up the following numbers:

(AB - R - 2B - HR - RBI - BB - K - AVG - OBP - SLG - OPS)
518 - 118 - 28 - 31 - 93 - 118 - 116 - .305 - .436 - .570 - 1.006

He was, in my opinion, the main reason that the Braves were as successful as they were last year. Without Drew, they may have still won the NL East, but I don't know. At the All-Star break, Drew's VORP was a healthy 41. And his numbers stayed consistent throughout the year. I am underwhelmed by his 28 doubles - I feel that a good hitter should get at least 35, but his OBP and SLG numbers were incredible. He was one of only 9 hitters to end up with an OPS over 1.000 (Bonds, Helton, Pujols, Rolen, Beltre, Edmonds, Berkman, Manny Ramirez were the others... Boy, St. Louis had 3 hitters with OPS's over 1.000!).

There is, of course, an important caveat when it comes to Drew - last season was his first fully healthy season. Looking at his career numbers, he seems to have alternatively bad and terrible years - 135 games one year, 100 the next, 135 the next year, then 100 again. If you believe in patterns, then Drew is due for an injury this year that will limit him to about 100 games.

Also, something that's interesting when you look at his numbers - he hasn't had that many great seasons! Taking the injury aspect out of it, his only star season before 2004 was in 2001 when he put up similar, if not better numbers. The other years were, on the other hand, average. Now how much of that was due to his injuries... well, that's up for debate. But this is the guy the Dodgers signed for 11 million per year.

Was he worth it? Well, yes. Given the Dodgers' specific situation, absolutely yes.

- They were reeling from having lost Adrian Beltre, and they were facing a relapse to 2003 when their offense stunk.
- This may give them a little more freedom to actually trade Shawn Green.
- The NL West is a weak division, and even one bat may make all the difference.
- Given what is left in the free agent market (Beltran, for example), Drew may actually be a CHEAP alternative! His value was equal to that of Beltran's and he'll come at a cheaper price... if Boras is to be believed.

Now, how much does this hurt the Braves? They may have a good starting rotation (though, see my previous posts - I think their rotation is vastly overrated). But where is their offense coming from? Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Marcus Giles, Rafael Furcal, Johnny Estrada, Adam LaRoche are their mainstays from last season... and I'm less than impressed.

- Andruw Jones is one of the most overrated players in the National League. His numbers are pedestrian (.833 OPS), even though his defense is subjectively stellar. For all the hype surrounding him, he hasn't put up the offensive numbers to be great. And all that talk about his speed? 6 stolen bases, 6 times caught stealing.
- Marcus Giles is a good player, but he still hasn't put up the consistent career numbers that make me believe that 2003 was for real. He also has his own injury issues.
- Rafael Furcal is another good player, but he may be another one whose hype is larger than his abilities. A .758 OPS just doesn't cut it, and 29 steals by a speedy, weak hitting player is not stellar.
- Chipper Jones had a terrible first half last season, but I think he's actually the one player in this list that's for real. I like him.
- Johnny Estrada is not the second coming of Pudge. While his .314 AVG dazzled some observers, his 9 HRs and .828 OPS were more indicative of his average abilities. A good hitter for a catcher to be sure, but nothing to build a lineup around.
- Adam LaRoche had a good season last year, considering his age, with a .821 OPS. But again, he's still developing, and for all we know, he's the next Ben Grieve.
- One thing that's true, however, is that their team defense is pretty good.

They have some interesting rookies coming up (Andy Marte), but the more I look at it, the Braves are NOT that great this year. They have a lot of hype surrounding them - whether it's hype around their rotation, or hype around their players like Andruw Jones and Furcal. But that hype is unjustified or, well, misplaced.

Call me crazy, but I think the Phillies may just be okay when all is said and done.

Liking what Billy Beane has done:

2004-12-20T15:14:00.000-05:00

As a Philadelphia born-and-raised sports fan, I have a secondary love of the Athletics, given their roots and Philly heritage. So while I'm not as bleeding-green passionate about the A's as Oakland natives, part of me was sad to see Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder get traded away from the A's within the span of 3 days.

But as I saw exactly who the A's received in return and as I saw just how the starting 9 and the starting rotation was shaping up, I began to realize that there's a reason why Billy Beane is the GM of the A's and not me. He plain and simple just has a great ability to see the whole picture.

Start with his rotation... he now has pretty much every highly regarded pitching prospect this side of Jose Cappellan and Scott Kazmir. His rotation now boasts 4 or 5 potential "aces" (despite how easily that term is sometimes thrown around):

Barry Zito: his stock has slipped, but he's still very young and still has that killer curve.
Rich Harden: became the real deal last season by being the most consistent starter for the A's.
Joe Blanton: supposedly better than Rich Harden, and we'll get to see in 2005.
Dan Meyer: someone the Braves, who know a thing or two about pitchers, considered their best talent in the minors... better even than Jose Cappellan (who apparently had just one plus pitch, his fastball).
Danny Haren: another stud prospect that we've been hearing about for a while now from the Cards organization.

They'll probably struggle this year, especially given Texas' and Anaheim's offenses and Seattle's apparent improvement to their lineup. That said, they may also develop into an interesting rotation. I believe they'll struggle, and the A's will be a below .500 team -- there's just too much offensive talent in that AL West and the AL East for these youngsters to succeed. But 2006? That's another question. These guys may just be a "Super 5" come 2006, and now every starter is signed for either two years (Zito) or 4-5 years (everyone else). At that price (lots of rookie contracts), there's no greater value in the whole major leagues.

Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder are definitely great. BUT:

1. They both had some recurring injuries last year, and as such present some risk to the A's.
2. Mulder was downright TERRIBLE in the second half. If that's what the Cardinals are getting, their search for an ace is not over.
3. They were going to be incredibly expensive after their contracts ran.

Yes, Mulder was going to be an A for a couple more years, but his comments about his grief over Hudson's departure was someone alarming ... he was going to leave after his contract, and he seemed to want to go to Atlanta that minute! Why not then trade him now, get what you can, and not wait till his value drops either because of another off year or a perception of having to trade him? I actually think the Mulder trade was BETTER than the Hudson trade, given that Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton is an amazing trio of young players to get at once.

They now have young talent that is cheap and, well, talented. Nick Swisher, Bobby Crosby, Charles Thomas, the pitchers, Juan Cruz, Kiko Calero.... these guys will play and play hard. Add to that Eric Chavez and Jason Kendall... and this team has attitude. And finally, remember Daric Barton's inclusion, and you realize that this team even has a future ready for after Kendall loses a step.

Bottom line: This team is going to be great, maybe not in 2005, maybe not even in 2006... but it'll definitely be great in 2007 and beyond. A's fans should rejoice... they have a GM who's bold, creative, and intelligent, and he knows what he's doing.

Quick News & New Blogger:

2004-12-20T15:01:00.000-05:00

Placido Polanco returns! I'm not sure the Phillies were expecting that (none of us were, for sure)... and I'm not sure where he'll play (PLEASE TRADE DAVID BELL), but I'm just happy to have his character and leadership and abilities on this team. Maybe there's hope yet...

Also, I'm announcing a new blogger: Mike Huttenlocher. Check out his sports blog, linked to the right (Hutt's Sports Ramblings). He may be a Mets fan and a NY Giants fan, but I can vouch for his sports knowledge, and his site will have some great commentary. It's a good read for sure!

Is this for REAL?!? Mulder to the Cardinals?

2004-12-18T20:11:00.000-05:00

There was a funny spoof before saying the Cardinals traded Albert Pujols to the A's... but apparently the truth can be stranger than fiction!!!

Billy Beane has traded Mark Mulder to the Cardinals for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton.

WHAT the heck is going on???

I guess from some weird economic standpoint, given the A's situation, this was a "good" move - no way Beane and the A's could afford Mulder, even after trading Hudson away. And he did get a pretty studly prospect in Danny Haren, and Kiko Calero fits their trend of getting power arms in the pen.

But WOW. WOW WOW WOW. I mean, WOW.

So his starting rotation is now: Zito, Harden, Blanton, Haren, Meyer? He really IS planning for the future, isn't he?

WOW.

I mean, I respect Beane, and I wish Ed Wade was bold and creative. But maybe not THIS bold. I hear Barton has a .445 OBP, and .511 SLG as a catcher, and that's certainly great. And Haren is potentially great. And Mulder had an off year. But to trade both Hudson and Mulder in the same week... well, I'm glad I'm not a diehard A's fan.

On the new Braves rotation:

2004-12-18T15:03:00.000-05:00

After completing his admittedly amazing deal for Tim Hudson, Braves GM John Schuerholz came out and declared that his new 2005 rotation is the best starting five he's ever had in Atlanta. Well, that was obviously exaggeration, given that he 1994, his starting five was:

Greg Maddux, who was at the top of his game and arguably putting up some of the best numbers in MLB history.
Tom Glavine, who was also at his most effective as a control pitcher.
John Smoltz, who was striking out batters at a great clip.
Steve Avery, a youngster was was still the brilliant pitcher people hoped he would be.
Kent Merker, an incredible guy to have as your number 5 pitcher.

There is no way the current starting five can compare to this great list of pitchers, and I immediately dismissed Schuerholz's statements as marketing hype, gamesmanship, and salesmanship tactics.

But nevertheless, as a Phillies fan, I was definitely depressed and angry to see the Braves acquire Tim Hudson, and it immediately put a damper on my expectations for the 2005 Phillies, a team whose window is just rapidly closing... to the point of wondering whether it's already shut.

Was I right to immediately put a downer on my expectations? Should I be worried about the 2005 Phillies' chances because of this acquisition of Tim Hudson and the new great Braves rotation?

Well, no Phillies fan can truly be confident about the next Phillies season, no matter how high the praise, how good the team looks on paper, and how much the prognosticators are predicting a playoff berth (ie: 2004). And at first, as my previous posts clearly show, I was worried about the Tim Hudson deal. In fact, nearly all of the sports-world has called this Hudson deal one of the best this offseason. Yahoo experts are saying that Schuerholz has driven the rest of the NL East into obscurity. ESPN polls and experts say that the Braves rotation is one of the best in the MLB.

But I now believe, after more thought, that the Braves rotation is a grossly OVERRATED rotation. And I believe that the Braves will come to disappoint many fans. And I believe that without some extra offensive firepower, the Braves will finish behind the Phillies in the East. Why? Let's take a look at their projected rotation:

Tim Hudson: Well, okay, this guy is now the best pitcher in the NL East (though I do believe Pedro will put up great numbers this season, I think it's a mirage and a cover for the future injuries he'll have to face). I don't know how much Mazzone will actually improve his numbers - given that it seems like Hudson has figured this whole pitching thing out and really doesn't need Mazzone to work his magic or teach him an offspeed pitch or anything like that. In fact, I could see Hudson helping the other pitchers out in the Braves organization... but I think the numbers we've seen from him will be the numbers we will see from him, all things considered (pitching in Oakland's stadium, facing pitchers instead of DH's, etc).

John Smoltz: This is where I diverge from many experts. Many people are praising his return to the rotation, claiming that he'll return to elite status, posting his phenomenal K rate as evidenced by his years as a closer. I disagree 100%. I expect a rather pedestrian season from John Smoltz... perhaps he'll be great in April and May, but come July, August, September, I really don't think Smoltz will be a great number 2 pitcher. Why? He's almost 40 years old. Now I know that he's saved his arm over the last 3 years as a closer, and he'll be fresh this season. But as a closer, he was able to do his job by facing each batter just once and (usually) striking them out. That changes drastically as a starter - just ask Eric Gagne! Now, to be effective, he'll have to go through the lineup 3 or 4 times. I know he did great things his last year as a starter - 1.12 WHIP, nearly 4-1 K/BB ratio, very low HR rates in 1999. But I just don't think he'll be able to do that now, 5 to 6 years later. Come the 4th, 5th, 6th innings, I really expect him to suffer... Roger Clemens aside, 38, 39 year old pitchers just have issues getting through the lineup.

John Thomson: His season last year was good, okay, but not great. 1.32 WHIP, 2.5-1 K/BB ratio... that's okay, but nothing exciting. He did put up some impressive WHIP numbers in Colorado (1.16 and 1.28 in 2001 and 2002) and most of his career numbers reflect time spent in Colorado and Texas, thus inflating his ERA and HR totals. But that said, Thomson is at best a run of the mill number 3 starter... and at 31, 32 years of age, he's nothing to hang your hat on. Count me as unimpressed.

Mike Hampton: Here's an prime example of people overestimating a Braves pitcher just because Leo Mazzone has gotten his hands on him. Yes, in 2003, he put up pretty good numbers that were a vast improvement over his Colorado days - but last season, his numbers? 1.53 WHIP; .290 BAA; nearly a 1-1 K/BB ratio; and only 172 innings pitched. Tack on a 4.28 ERA, and this, folks, is a bad pitcher. He's not 33 years old, a long time away from his one excellent season in 1999 in Houston. Ever since, he's been an overrated pitcher (check out his career stats). His K/BB ratio has never been good. His WHIP as a result suffers immensely. He posted ONE excellent year, 1999, and all other years have been good, not great. Yes he's their number 3 or 4 pitcher, but I personally would rather have Vicente Padilla and Brett Myers ... and there is no way Hampton is a scary starter.

Kyle Davies/Horacio Ramirez: I don't know much about Kyle Davies. Horacio Ramirez put up some interesting numbers last season, but the statistical data set is just not extensive enough to predict what till happen. In any case, as number 5 starters, they may do well, but nothing that scares me.

So there you have it. The vaunted Braves rotation. Yes, Tim Hudson is superb and I desperately wish he was a Phillie. But best Braves rotation ever? No way. Best rotation in the NL East? Maybe. It's arguable. Dominating rotation? Absolutely not.

On the new (overrated) Braves rotation:

2004-12-18T13:26:00.000-05:00

And so it happened. The worst thing possible. Hudson is a Brave.

2004-12-16T17:55:00.000-05:00

Well, it's a dark day for all Phillies fans, and really, anyone who has a team in the National League East that is not the Braves. John Schuerholz just showed everyone why the Braves are the class of the National League East and why they will win their 52nd NL East title in a row (exaggeration intended).

The worst possible thing just happened. The Braves acquired Tim Hudson, and they really didn't give up that much to get him. Juan Cruz, Charles Thomas, and Dan Meyer really don't add up to a Tim Hudson, and the Braves really are a big bat away from a World Series appearance. While I'm not sold on John Smoltz returning to the starting rotation, he will be serviceable at the least, and a rotation headed by Tim Hudson will always be strong.

Could the Phillies have gotten into the Hudson sweepstakes? Yesterday's posts to the contrary (talking about the economic problems that would surface should give up cheap players for a one-year rental), I think they should have tried something still. I'm underwhelmed by the ultimate deal... I'm surprised Nick Green wasn't involved. I'm surprised Marcus Giles wasn't involved (even with Matt Ginter being a new Athletic). I'm surprised the Dodgers didn't finish off this deal.

Now with Leo Mazzone getting his hands on Tim Hudson, I really have to think that the Braves will manage to sign Hudson to a long term deal. And meanwhile, we have the Phillies with a rotation headed by Jon Lieber and Randy Wolf.

Well, we'll just have to see what happens.

When I have more time, I'll take a look at the Tim Hudson stats, compared with what they gave up. Let's see if this was as great a deal as I lamentably believe. In the meantime, I'm gonna keep rooting for the Phillies, as hopeless as that may become for 2005.

Interestingly (re: Braves and Hudson)

2004-12-15T18:10:00.000-05:00

So, now that the A's have acquired Matt Ginter from the Brewers (my fiancee's hometown team), it would seem that the Braves don't have what the A's want for Tim Hudson! Good news for Phillies-philes. I mean, without Jose Cappellan, without Marcus Giles being needed by the A's... perhaps Hudson will end up in LA in an Edwin Jackson-type deal.

We Shall See.

(See what I'm reduced to as a Phillies fan! Rooting against the Braves' deals.)

The Philosophy of Ed Wade (re: Hudson dreams)

2004-12-15T16:20:00.000-05:00

Ah, the stuff of dreams. If only baseball worked like fantasy baseball, with no (real) concerns about money and salaries!

Anyway, Tom G. over at Balls Sticks & Stuff (link to the right) makes the 100% correct point that the Phillies will never trade for Tim Hudson. And he's right, there's no way ... and more than that, he's absolutely correct about the reasons: It would be a one year rental, we'd never be able to afford him for 2006 and 2007, we'd lose out on young cheap talent in the trade.

Deep down, I knew it was a pipe dream. And while Hudson would be that ace pitcher that every team would covet (he is on my keeper fantasy team, by the way), I know that given the salary structure of the Phillies, there is no way for this deal to ever happen.

I think my real point, however, was to continue my growing attacks on Ed Wade. I know that I'm beating a dead horse, or at least harping on an issue that I will never ever affect or influence. But I will still use this blog to air my thoughts on it (with my apologies!).

It's not that the Phillies won't trade for Tim Hudson. You're right, it's just not feasible.

Rather, it's that the Phillies would NEVER trade for Tim Hudson, even if it was feasible. We'd never TRY to make it feasible. I'm not even sure Ed Wade could come up with a way to make sure that Hudson goes to another team in a 3 way deal and stop him from going to the Braves.

Last year this time, I was excited about the Phillies - Thome, Billy Wagner, Millwood, these were heady times. As ShallowCenter said earlier, it looked like we had turned the corner into an exciting, possibility-rich team. But instead, it looks to have been a way to get fans to our new stadium in that first year. And that's it. Not a change in philosophy. Not a change in tactics. Not a change away from stagnant conservatism. Not a sign of creativity and intelligence.

Instead, we now get assurances that our mediocre pitching staff is actually great. We get "bargains" like Kenny Lofton. We get unnecessary risks like Jon Lieber while Odalis Perez (he's back!) and Matt Clement remain on the market, perhaps for cheaper. We get exciting players being passed around... All while the Phillies look for a 6th member of the bullpen. We get Ryan Howard stuck in the minors. Chase Utley as the hope of the future. Marlon Byrd as a useless minor-leaguer, to be replaced by Jason Michaels and Lofton.

I know Tim Hudson isn't possible. I realize the economics just don't work out.

But it's not like we're sitting on the sidelines in the market now because we've gotten the players we truly need... it's because we're going the "safe route" of signing those players that other teams don't want.

The Crazy National League East - Pedro, Hudson

2004-12-15T09:27:00.000-05:00

Well, yesterday was almost a good day for me, as a Phillie fan. I learned that the Mets were actually guaranteeing FOUR years, about $50 million for Pedro Martinez. Yes, Pedro may be pretty good in 2005, but who really thinks that the Mets are one stud pitcher away from relevance? Now let's take a closer look - though it's the same look that nearly every baseball analyst has taken at this deal:

1. Pedro has about a 90% tear in his labrum, give or take a few percentage points.
2. Pedro has become a 5 inning, 90-95 pitch pitcher. In other words, you better have a good bullpen when Pedro is on the mound.
3. The Mets are so anxious to make this move that they are perhaps willing to forego the MRI on his physical examination!
4. The chances of having Pedro healthy for all of 2005, let alone 2006, 2007, and 2008 are about as close to zero. Any closer to zero, and it would be negative.
5. 50 million dollars... man, it's like the Mets are trying to repeat the Mo Vaughn situation.

So, in my mind, the Mets have become a non-factor for the next 5 years. And that made me happy as a Phillie fan, especially considering my best man is a Mets fan.

But then, I learned a new bit of news... the Braves are going after Tim Hudson.

Now, I just saw that "A Citizen's Blog" has stolen my thunder! His latest post - the link to his site is to the right - urges the Phillies to deal for Hudson. I agree with this 100%. I don't think Ryan Howard, Marlon Byrd, and a pitcher like Myers will be nearly enough to get him, but I do think something like Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson or Brett Myers, and maybe Chase Utley would be closer. I don't think people want to give up on Chase Utley, but I don't think he'll turn out to be anything special. Call it a gut feeling.

That said, there's NO WAY that Ed Wade will ever try anything like this. Even though we desperately need an ace pitcher. Even though we desperately need some sign that our GM is competent. Even though Hudson is one of the best. Even though Hudson is a great groundball pitcher.

No, this will never happen. Because in Ed Wade's mind, our pitching staff is among the best in the majors. Because Wolf and Padilla will hopefully be better than last year. Because Myers will hopefully develop.

Well, I'd like to tell Ed Wade where to stick that hope. And please, tell me, what is the point of keeping Ryan Howard when you have Thome, Abreu, and Burrell playing the positions that he could play??

Why can't we have a GM like Billy Beane, whose quote from the winter meetings was something like "I'm feeling creative today"? You just gotta love that.

Ah those marvelous, Boring Phillies

2004-12-13T15:50:00.000-05:00

Hello all! My apologies for the recent lack of posts - I was finishing up the last of my law school exams (no 29 year old should ever have to take exams ever again). And I spent this last weekend recovering and staying up late watching my Phillies waste away their future and any shred of momentum/energy they had built up over the last 2 years with their Thome and Wagner signings and trades.

ShallowCenter (link to the side) has the relevant quotations from the Inquirer, from Ed Wade, showing how terrible a GM he is. No more needs to be said. The way he relies on his average players reminded me of how the Eagles relied on Pinkston and Thrash before finally getting Owens.

Suffice it to say: The Phillies went into this offseason needing a starting pitcher and a centerfielder, and they ended up with Lieber and Lofton. In the meantime, Odalis Perez, David Wells, Beltran, Finley, Lawton, Tim Hudson, Andruw Jones, Edwin Jackson, Matt Clement, and more were all available via trade or free agency, and the Phillies, the hometeam for a major East coast city, were non-players in this interesting market.

It's just not acceptable for a Philadelphia team to be so irrelevant. The Eagles wanted Kearse and Owens? They got them. The Flyers wanted Roenick and Primeau? They got them. The Sixer wanted... well never mind. But the Phillies need to wake up, realize that this is not a baseball town, and that they need to take some bold steps to get our team back into contention.

Much more later. We'll take a look at Pat Burrell, and see if he can really hold down the heart of the lineup. In fact, we'll take a look at that lineup as a whole.

Jon Lieber?

2004-12-08T21:04:00.000-05:00

The Phillies have signed Jon Lieber to a 3 year deal worth, well, too much money.

Let's get this straight:

1. The Phillies just went through a season where their two top younger pitchers, Vicente Padilla and Randy Wolf, had serious arm troubles.
2. Their other pitchers were shaky at best, and they have lost their figurative "ace" in losing Kevin Millwood.
3. Moreover, they lost who appeared to be the staff's favorite teammate, Eric Milton.
4. They were pursuing David Wells, who despite his age and recent injury history was attractive because he was willing to take a 1 year deal, not a longer one.

So what do we end up with??

1. A guy with very recent, serious arm troubles
2. A guy who was shaky last season (4+ ERA, high WHIP). The only time he was great was in the playoffs, but hey, that was Boston-New York we're talking about. You better bring your A-game.
3. A guy who's going to be 35, and who is going to stick with the team for 3 long years.

I honestly have no idea what the front office is thinking with this.

What's the rotation?

Lieber
Wolf
Padilla
Lidle
Myers.

Pretty damn mediocre.

Well, as my friend Steve says: "Thank god it wasn't Derek Lowe or David Wells!".

More on this later.

On our GM, Mr. Wade.

2004-12-07T09:08:00.000-05:00

So, if you're a reader of Phillies blogs, including mine, you'll notice that not much is happening in the Phillies world right now. And I know, not much is happening MLB-wise either, given that weird and pointless deadline for free-agent compensation and other market-related delays. (Mets notwithstanding). But at least for some teams, there are interesting rumors and encouraging developments... Yankees trying to steal Milton (any one else here thinking "Go ahead!"?); A's trying to deal Hudson (any one here thinking "To the Phillies!"?); Red Sox thinking Renteria.

The Phillies?

Well, the Phillies have decided not to sign a 74 year old catcher with health problems, namely Sandy Alomar Jr. The Phillies are looking to re-sign Rheal Cormier (yippee) and Eric Milton (FAT chance). They traded for an old centerfielder who's main asset is his *speed*. And they've basically lost an all-around good player in Placido Polanco... to the A's no less (that should tell you something that the A's are going after him hard), who by the way was basically our only exchange for Scott Rolen.

Odalis Perez? Not on the radar.
Carlos Beltran? In your dreams.
Ryan Howard? Stuck in limbo.

I think it may be time for me to face facts and accept something that most of Philadelphia has already concluded: Ed Wade is a bad GM.

No, not b/c of his free-agent signings. Not because of his lack of significant deals at the trade deadline last season. It's something deeper and more foundational: He is simply NOT a major player when it comes to the MLB world of GM's. He's not Billy Beane. He's not Brian Cashman. He's not even Theo Epstein. And for a city like Philadelphia (major east coast city), that's just not enough. Look at our other teams: Bobby Clarke, Andy Reid, Billy King.... Ed Wade?

It's not just that we need someone who has an iota of excitement and emotion in his demeanor. It's that we need someone who we KNOW is doing all he can to bring that championship home. And we need someone we can trust to actually do the right things. For a long time, I was a supporter of Ed Wade, but I have to admit, I'm not feeling him right now.

We have a boring situation on our hands right now, and that is infinitely worse than a bad one. I mean, there's some exciting things going on in Detroit right now... why not in Philly? Remember, our new stadium was supposed to be the gateway to better and more exciting things! Championships, big names, great teams.... but Ed Wade, the wet blanket, has put that passion out.

Lofton and Bonds

2004-12-03T18:16:00.000-05:00

First off, it's official, the Phillies have a new centerfielder. And I guess it's also official: the Phillies are out of the Beltran sweepstakes. Heh, not that they would (or should) go after Beltran... but he's on my fantasy keeper team, so I was hoping he'd be a Phillie someday. But from a real-life baseball perspective, the Phillies are better off without Beltran.

That said, the trade for Lofton leaves me with a monumental shrug of the shoulders. What does he bring? Why were the Phillies so intent on getting him? The only real difference I can see between his stats and Jason Michaels's stats is perhaps the longevity and history. Otherwise, in the short term, they both bring pretty much the same, mediocre levels of production. Lofton may be a better baserunner, and he definitely brings veteran leadership, but overall, this move leaves me a bit indifferent.

I'm wondering now who the Phillies will target for their new SP. Reports had Carl Pavano's agent saying the Phillies are a "serious player"... but really, how much do you believe him? Yet again, no mention of Odalis Perez... and I'm sure a lot of baseball fans are just as confused as I am at the relative lack of interest in this guy.

Now... Barry Bonds. Honestly, I think two things are paramount:

1. I cannot believe that this information was leaked. I'm not so naive that the legal system is perfectly fair (and in any case, as a lawyer-to-be, I've seen my fair share of crap in the system)... but the secrecy surrounding grand jury testimony is just one of those foundational things that's needed for the system to even begin to work. Who now will feel fully comfortable in a high profile case to tell the whole incriminating truth?? After all, in 1 or 2 years, that testimony may just end up all over the front pages and ESPN (or CNN, depending on the circumstances).

2. People need to stop criticizing Barry Bonds. Get off his back. Stop saying there should be an asterisk.
- Steroids are not proven to help with hitting prowess and bat speed and batting eye.
- I'm willing to bet that the majority of our beloved "heroes" of baseball have taken supplements and steroids of some kind. If you want to invalidate Bonds' numbers, well, prepare to have to reach into the books and throw asterisks next to nearly every prominent player. And if they haven't taken steroids, odds are they fought to get whatever advantage they could get in some other way, be it signal stealing, vaseline, whatever.
- This guy was off the steroids after 2003. Well, last I checked, he kept up his mind-boggling numbers in 2003 and 2004.

Let's not blast Bonds and Giambi but give McGwire a pass. Or Sosa. Or Brady Anderson. Or Caminiti. Or Nomar Garciaparra (remember how big he got before his wrist injury?). Or Lenny Dykstra. Or Ron Gant. Or every minor leaguer who tried the stuff to try to make it to the bigs.

4 Reasons I'm Glad I'm not a Mets Fan

2004-12-01T22:46:00.000-05:00

I love that the Mets are in the National League East, because that's one less team that will challenge the Phillies... and really, the Atlanta Braves are enough to deal with anyway.

Reason 1: Their offer to Pedro.

3 years, 37.5 million dollars??? Wow. It's like the Mets aspire to be the Baltimore Orioles. Maybe they should go out and trade for Jason Giambi while they're at it. Or maybe they should give a sizable contract to Tom Glavine..... Oh wait, nevermind. Now don't get me wrong, I think Pedro has a lot to offer still (though not nearly as much as he did 3 years ago, of course). And I realize that Pedro might get them some fans to fill that old, decrepit Shea Stadium (games there are a bit depressing, b/c of how empty the place gets). But man, it's not like this team is one key starter away from a World Series. And it's not like they really need to be hampered with one more big contract for an old player. I really hope Pedro goes to the Mets.

Reason 2: Benson's wife.

Did anyone else hear what she said? Basically, if Benson is caught cheating on her, she'll retaliate by sleeping with EVERYONE in the Mets organization. Trainers, management, players, everyone.

What an embarrassment. What a weird way to build team chemistry. What a joke.

Reason 3: Benson.

Oh yeah, let's not forget that the Mets went all out to try to sign Benson (a mediocre 30 year old pitcher) to a long contract. Congratulations!

Reason 4: Sammy Sosa.

It also looks as if the Mets are going after Sammy Sosa (not Magglio Ordonez, which I'm just plain shocked at). Well, again, are they trying to emulate the Orioles or the 90's? Go get him Mets... I look forward to your continued days in the cellar.

On Deck

2004-11-30T18:02:00.000-05:00

Hello all. Up next for this blog: Let's take a look at Pat Burrell - as mysterious a player to me as Brett Myers. What can we learn from his stats thus far? What can the Phillies do with him? We'll see soon.

Sorry about the lack of updates yesterday - I was occupied with lawyerly obligations. But I'll be writing again soon.

Courtship of David Wells, pt. 2

2004-11-28T09:18:00.000-05:00

From Jason Stark's latest "Rumblings and Grumblings" (thanks to ESPN):

"The Phillies continue to shop for center fielders. But they've actually been telling other teams that a "high-end" starting pitcher is their top priority. That doesn't mean Pedro Martinez or Randy Johnson. But the Phillies are actively chasing starters who figure to land in the $8-million-a-year (or lower) bins. Their biggest free-agent targets, from all indications: Carl Pavano, Brad Radke, Al Leiter, David Wells, Jaret Wright and Derek Lowe."

and

"Teams and agents that have talked to the Padres keep reporting that their first priority is to re-sign David Wells. But Wells' agent, Gregg Clifton, says he and San Diego GM Kevin Towers have "only spoken one time, and I wouldn't call it a negotiating session. David wants to come back," Clifton said. "But they'd be making a mistake if they think he won't leave." Wells has plenty of other options (Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Indians), because he'll take a one-year deal. But he'll no doubt want a guarantee a lot closer to the $6 million he totaled with incentives this season than the $1.25-million base salary he signed for after back surgery."

Bleah.

I can't really say I'm excited about any of the free agents that the Phillies are aiming at... and I remain mystified why Perez isn't on that list. Perhaps the Phillies are doing a little Bobby Clarke-esque misdirection? Or maybe there's something about Perez that I as a citizen just do not know? I'd like to think his numbers mean something, however. And I doubt that Pavano will be cheaper than Odalis Perez... perhaps even Lowe would be more expensive.

And, that $6 million figure is a little scary. Cory Lidle at 3.15 mil or whatever he got is one thing. David Wells at 6 mil is a whole 'nother world. Throw in the fact that the Yankees and Dodgers may be bidding for him as well... Yipe.

And thanks to Tom G. for pointing something out with my earlier post about Wells - San Diego's park is definitely a pitcher's park. I was going to mention that, but his away/home splits seemed to cloud the issue... but I think you're right, you'd really have to expect some sort of impact on his stats with a move to the new Vet. (Can't quite call it the Citizen's Bank Park yet). I haven't looked at his game-to-game stats closely, but if he pitched a few away games at LA and SF, those are also pitcher's parks, no? And I noticed that Arizona roughed him up a couple times... I wonder if that was at the hitter-friendly confines of the Bob. Anyway, bottom line, there are some interesting variables that may affect Wells' stats by a move to homerun-friendly park like Philly.

The courtship of David Wells... Why?

2004-11-27T22:30:00.000-05:00

The Phillies are an interesting team in that they have both interesting young players in development (Ryan Madson, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, and Chase Utley head the list) and veterans in the relative prime of their careers (most notably Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, and Billy Wagner). There are also players who have a good amount of experience (Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla) but who are still figuring out exactly what they bring to the table. Nevertheless, their potential is undeniable. As a result of this mix, it seems that the Phillies are in the enviable situation of being in a position to contend for it all (if you're being optimistic, of course) and yet having young studs in the system set up for the near future. There is an energy around this team, if you're a fan of the Phillies, and there's a sense that one more key free agent who's young but established would really help to put this team in a very exciting spot.

It is in this context that we have the Phillies pursuing David Wells.

It has recently been reported that the Phillies have stepped up their efforts to sign David Wells to a one year contract. Specifically, they have offered at least (at LEAST) $5 million for one year of David Wells' services. All of this leads to a very important question...

Why???

I'll state my opinions right off the bat - At first glance, I think the Phillies are making a big mistake in going after someone like David Wells. Now, what do I mean by "someone like David Wells"? For the most part, I mean someone who is 41 years old, soon to be 42 next May. I mean someone who's pretty much a short term rental player, a guy who'll be here for one year and one year only, a guy who'll have no serious impact to the long term development of this team. And, I mean a guy who'll add very little, if anything, to the team.

Now, am I right? Are my opinions reasonable? I'm not sure... and I'm willing to keep an open mind on this while I analyze it all.

I've already made my case about Odalis Perez (see below). I mean, you have a guy who's about 15 years younger than David Wells (FIFTEEN YEARS), a guy who's also left-handed, and a guy who won't be all that much more expensive than 5 million a year. You have a guy who can be a mainstay in the rotation for many more years, and you have a guy who quite frankly is better than David Wells right now.

So what gives?

Well, let's take a look at Wells' 2004 numbers. First, the basics:
(G - W/L - IP - H - HR - K - BB - ERA - WHIP - BAA)
31 12-8 195.2 203 23 101 20 3.73 1.14 .266

I was surprised when I saw these numbers. I knew Wells had a good year for the Padres, but I didn't expect the low WHIP and the low BAA. His K/9IP come out to about 4.66; his BB/9IP come out to .92; his K/BB ratio is a solid 5.05. These are very good indicators, and something I wouldn't have expected from a guy like Wells at this stage in his career.

Even more encouraging is his relative consistency throughout the season. He definitely started off very very well, posting WHIP numbers of 1.10, 1.00, and 1.00 for his first 3 months (a span of 13 starts). He dipped a bit in July (WHIP of 1.33), but his August and September numbers were very very good (1.23, 1.11 respectively). In fact, he became more of a strikeout pitcher as the season progressed, putting up the following K numbers in each successive month: 7, 9, 17, 13, 22, 29. All this while maintaining consistently low BB numbers (5, 2, 1, 2, 7, 3).

So, there was no late season swoon, contrary to what you might expect from an overweight 41 year old. A one-year signing is starting to look a little better... but let's take a look at his stats over the past 5 years first:

(year - ERA - WHIP - IP - K - BB - K/9IP - BB/9IP - BAA)
1998 3.49 1.05 214.1 163 29 6.86 1.22 .239
1999 4.82 1.33 231.2 169 62 6.58 2.41 .271
2000 4.11 1.29 229.2 166 31 6.52 1.22 .289
2001 4.47 1.40 100.2 59 21 5.29 1.89 .297
2002 3.75 1.24 206.1 137 45 5.98 1.97 .259
2003 4.14 1.23 213.0 101 20 4.27 0.85 .286

Definitely not as good numbers as his 2004 numbers, at least in terms of WHIP and BAA, but interestingly good nonetheless. There are areas of concern, however - foremost for me is his somewhat high batting average against numbers. He seems to be in the .270-.280 BAA area consistently, if not higher. Also, his K rate has dropped precipitously over the last 6 years, though as I noted above, he did finish strong in 2004. One thing is true however, and that is that Wells has been a very good control pitcher, as evidenced by his low BB/9IP numbers.

So where does that leave us?

I think it's clear that the Phillies are hoping that Wells can provide a solid, stable presence at the top of the rotation. His numbers last year certainly warrant consideration as an "ace", and they were certainly better than the numbers put up by Randy Wolf or Vicente Padilla. If Wells is signed for one year, that sets our rotation at:

David Wells
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Cory Lidle
Brett Myers

And this means that (1) Gavin Floyd will start at AAA (which I actually support 100%) (2) Ryan Madson will be in the bullpen again, unless Brett Myers continues his mysterious lack of development (3) the Phillies will not pursue Odalis Perez or some other starter like Derek Lowe. In other words, the Phillies are planning to make Wells their only other free agent SP acquisition.

His numbers are encouraging, and his experience can't be denied. Nevertheless, I can't shake the feeling that this signing would be a move that the Mets would make, or the Orioles... neither team I would want to be a fan of. As I've said before, we're at an enviable place with the Phillies... their rotation has some solid starters like Padilla and Wolf. They have some very good young kids who are a year away from making their anticipated splash in Floyd and Hamels. They have a young pitcher with the dreaded "upside" in Brett Myers. Why not take this opportunity to take that 5 million you'd spend on Wells and put it into a guy like Perez who can really put some long-term shape into this rotation?

For example, let's look at the projected 2006 rotation, assuming Wells is gone after 1 season:

Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Gavin Floyd
Cory Lidle
Brett Myers/Ryan Madson/Cole Hamels

And the long term projected rotation (with MANY assumptions, I know):

Gavin Floyd
Cole Hamels
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Brett Myers

It's intriguing for sure, but you know... I just wish there was a guy we could have in the rotation who's (1) young (2) established (3) possessing nasty pitches (4) and who'll be here for a long time... and it just so happens that (I believe) there is a guy out there for the taking. Namely Odalis Perez. Insert his name in the above rotations... Got too many pitchers? How about trading Brett Myers? Or maybe Madson or Hamels? Or, daresay, Randy Wolf? Sure could use a good centerfielder, couldn't we? (And don't get me started on Carlos Beltran)

Bottom line: David Wells would provide something good this season, barring injury or breakdown. But my concern is deeper than just 2005. Why not make a move or signing that meets more than just 2005's needs? Why not kill two birds with one stone? Why not establish a good rotation for next year AND the years beyond?

On Deck... (and thank you!)

2004-11-27T15:00:00.000-05:00

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.

I just wanted to thank those who posted comments on my opinions regarding Odalis Perez. It looks like there are a few people out there who agree, and people made good points about Clement and Radke. Let's see what Ed Wade manages to do!

On that note, my next post will examine David Wells. And hopefully I can answer the following question: Why is Philadelphia pursuing this free agent?? Count me as skeptical, but let's see if there are any surprises after analyzing Wells.

The Mysterious Brett Myers

2004-11-23T13:56:00.000-05:00

Brett Myers
DOB: 8/17/1980 (magical year!)
Age: 24
6-4, 223, RHP
1st Round Pick (12th overall) in 1999

So let's talk about Brett Myers. There was a LOT of excitement accompanying his ascent through minor league ball, and his debut in July 2002 was about as anticipated as any debut by any Phillie pitcher. He seemed to be the real deal, armed with a plus fastball, a scary-good curveball, the mentality of a former boxer, and the perfect physique for a pitcher. He was the "next Schilling", the can't miss prospect for the Phillies, a future number one, and a bulldog at heart. He also (perhaps unfortunately) came in the same time Mark Prior entered the league... and the inevitable comparisons sprouted.

I, for one, was enamored of Brett Myers way before he threw his first pitch. I'm involved in a very fun and very devoted keeper fantasy baseball league, and in 2002, I was making my cross-country drive from Boston to LA and back. A great trip, one that I suggest everyone does, no matter how old you are (I was 26)... the only problem was that Brett was due to make his debut while I was on the trip! So there I was feverishly checking the fantasy leagues while on the trip, in my motel rooms, to be sure to snatch him up with my #1 waiver priority as soon as he was available. (Yes I was a little too obsessed with it, but hey, I'm better now.)

So how's he doing now?

Well, first thing's first - he is still only 24. 24 years old! He's incredibly young, he's still highly regarded skills-wise, and there are many many pitchers who ... for lack of a better word ... were late bloomers. Curt Schilling comes to mind, which is interesting and perhaps revealing, given the similarities between the two. So I will be the first to admit that there are many reasons to say that Brett Myers is exactly where he should be at this point in his career. This, however, doesn't make for an interesting column, so I'm going to take a different approach.

Let's look at his career numbers, starting with his year-end totals.
(W-L - G - IP - ERA - WHIP - K - BB - HR - H - BAA)
2002: 4-5 12 72.0 4.25 1.42 34 29 11 73 .277
2003: 14-9 32 193.0 4.43 1.46 143 76 20 205 .272
2004: 11-11 32 176.0 5.52 1.47 116 62 31 196 .281

Some initial thoughts:
- Let's put away his 2002 numbers for now... it was his first season, and a half season at that. He was acclimating to the big leagues, and so there are many variables that could explain his numbers (both good and bad).

- In comparing 2003 and 2004, there are some glaring trends: (1) His homeruns allowed jumped significantly (+55%) from 20 to 31. (2) His K's dropped significantly from 143 to 116. (3) His ERA jumped up. (4) His BAA jumped as well.

So, let's look at his K/9IP and BB/9IP and H/9IP numbers:
2003: K/9IP = 6.7 BB/9IP = 3.5 H/9IP = 9.6
2004: K/9IP = 5.9 BB/9IP = 3.2 H/9IP = 10.0

Not the most encouraging numbers to be sure.

Now, all in all, his 2003 and 2004 seasons are similar enough to chalk it up to early career learning and development. His K rate dropped pretty significantly, but there was talk during the season of turning Brett into a "pitcher" rather than a "thrower", so this may be a reflection of that philosophy. Also, it may be possible that the new stadium in Philly contributed to both his higher HR total and higher ERA. I'll take a look at the stadium issues a little more closely later on, however.

What can't be ignored, however, is his uncomfortably high BAA (which worsened) and his high WHIP. It's clear that he's not yet in the realm of Mark Prior (or Rich Harden?), but like I said before, this may have been an unfair comparison any way. When combined with his lower K rate, at least on the surface of things, it sure seems like Brett is having trouble getting people out. And this just doesn't seem to fit the profile of a pitcher with plus stuff.

Let's look at the possibility that the new stadium is an issue:
2003 Home Stats: 8-5, 3.71 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 99.1 IP, 89 K, 44 BB, 89 H, 8 HR
2004 Home Stats: 5-7, 5.77 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 73.1 IP, 42 K, 19 BB, 81 H, 15 HR

It sure does seem like the new stadium (either physically or psychologically) affected Brett in 2004. His ERA and HR totals seems to validate the claim that the new stadium is a hitter's park... but to me it just raises the question: Why didn't Brett adjust and keep his pitches low?

His Away splits are also illuminating:
2003 Away Stats: 6-4, 5.19 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 93.2 IP, 54 K, 32 BB, 116 H, 12 HR
2004 Away Stats: 6-4, 5.35 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 102.2 IP, 74 K, 43 BB, 115 H, 16 HR

Yikes! Pretty consistently bad, wouldn't you say? Now again, yes, he is a young pitcher, still learning the ropes. But this is a guy who came in with so many expectations, so much hype, so much hoopla over his boxer's mentality, and with comparisons to Schilling and Prior. Unfair or not, they are there... and Brett just doesn't quite add up. Yet.

Also of note is that his 2004 Away splits are worse than his Home splits, at least in terms of WHIP. His HR rate is lower Away than at Home, so perhaps it's not so simple to call the new Vet a hitter's park. Perhaps it's just a homerun-friendly park. Kinda makes sense that there aren't too many singles and doubles and such -- the short outfield would actually hinder those hits, and in fact many of what would be doubles are actually turning into homeruns.

A look at his game log for 2004 is also somewhat worrisome. It's the model of inconsistency - in successive games from June to September, Brett allowed the following earned runs: 2, 6, 1, 5, 8, 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0, 6, 6, 2, 4, 2, 5, 1, 1, 7. He pitched gems against San Diego and LA... but both of those were in those respective pitcher-friendly parks. He pitched clunkers against Boston (understandable), the Mets (ugh), the Giants, the Astros, and the Expos (which should never happen). There was just no consistency in his season - just when he seemed to be catching fire, he'd follow it up with 3 straight crappers. In the end, his 2004 season was an enigma, hard to read and with no discernible patterns.

Given his success against SD and LA in those ballparks, one might say that Brett is in trouble at the new Philly stadium... perhaps he needs the bounteous outfields. But then, look at his box line from May 20, against LA in Philly: 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 5 H. Bottom line? There is exceptional talent in Brett Myers, and there are so many times when it just gives a little peek and excites Phillies fans (most notably... me!).

Ultimately, I do think that Brett is growing and learning and developing. Perhaps the change in pitching coaches (good riddance Joe Kerrigan) will help. So what do the Phillies do with him?

There was one news moment that I remember where Brett expressed an interest in relieving and even closing (once Billy Wagner leaves, one would presume). I'm not sure about that for Brett. It may be that he is the next Eric Gagne, but something tells me that Brett just needs a little more time, with a little more experience to help him get through the lineup his second and third times through. So to me, the bullpen is not the answer.

Trade him? An interesting proposition... especially if the Phillies do sign someone like (holding my breath) Odalis Perez (see below). But once again, he is 24, still quite possibly the next Schilling. Something tells me that if the Phillies traded him, he'd just blow up for another team and start putting up great numbers. And in any case, what could the Phillies really get for him? Andruw Jones? Maybe... I'm sure Leo Mazzone would love to get his hands on Brett (and man, would he suddenly become Cy Young!). It wouldn't be a straight up trade, because I don't think anyone in their right mind would give up a CF like Jones for Brett.

Given his huge upside (yeah, it's still there), and given his youth and opportunity to grow, for now I say give him another year in the new stadium. Let's see what happens. After this year, if there's no growth, however, I might start to say that it's time to move on and give up on the hype.

But let's wait and see.

Happy Thanksgiving

2004-11-23T13:13:00.000-05:00

I will be back posting on Sunday or Monday, after Thanksgiving. My fiancee will be with her parents in Wisconsin, but I'll be back in the fold in Philly with my parents (it's our parents' last hurrahs before the wedding, etc). Hope you all have great holiday weekends, and go Eagles!

On Deck... and hello!

2004-11-22T18:44:00.000-05:00

Next up, I would like to tackle the enigma that is Brett Myers. We'll be taking a look at his career thus far, any trends, how he might progress, and what the Phillies can do with him. My discussion of Odalis Perez hinged somewhat on the question of Brett Myers, so it seems like the next logical step for exploration.

Before that, I'd like to say hello to all the Phillies bloggers that are out there. Thanks to the many bloggers for their welcomes and links to my blog. If there are any other bloggers out there, please check to see if I've made a link to your site, and if I haven't please email me (emhan98@hotmail.com) and I'll put it in.

Likewise, I'd love a link from your blog as well!

So up next... Brett Myers.

Getting a Starting Pitcher, namely Odalis Perez

2004-11-22T01:48:00.000-05:00

Let me first say that I'm not 100% convinced that the Phillies should go after a high-profile free agent SP. So, let's look at what they've got right now: (projected starters)

Randy Wolf: Not bad, but not an "ace" by any means. Injuries obviously hurt him this past year, but before that, he was turning into an interesting pitcher... LHP, good K numbers, good K-BB ratios.

Vicente Padilla: Again, not bad, but not an "ace". I wonder if he's falling into that Matt Clement region of "excellent stuff but never quite puts it together for a season." He has excellent WHIP numbers (at least, before this past season), but his K-BB ratio isn't overwhelming. For a guy with "electric stuff", you'd hope for a little more.

Brett Myers: Ugh. What happened? I had this guy on my fantasy team, and man, what a disappointment. It sure seems like a mental problem, because before the season, everyone was all raving about his stuff and his presence. We'll have to see.

Corey Lidle: The recent re-signing of Lidle means he'll be in the rotation. Everyone loves this guy in the front office, but he sure seems like an ordinary pitcher to me. That said, he did well for the Phillies in his 10 starts, he's a good control pitcher, and he's an "innings-eater"... though the value of that is still up in the air for me.

Gavin Floyd: Well, this is a question... but he's exciting and young, so of course, Philly is craving more starts from this guy. If Brett Myers' story wasn't a cautionary tale, then I don't know what is, but then again, he showed some promise. His 16 walks in 28.1 IP isn't great, but he is very young.

So. There's your starting rotation, as of this moment. Definitely promising, definitely with room to grow... but is that where the Phillies are right now? No. Not with Thome (and not Ryan Howard) manning first base.

Personally, I'd like to see Ryan Madson try a starting role on for size and see just where his curveball will lead him. He was invaluable in the pen, but I like our pen even without him... and I wonder if Brett Myers would be better suited in relief anyway. There's a topic for another day.

I'd also like to see Gavin Floyd wait a little bit longer. The guy was born in 1983 for goodness sake! That makes him... 21 yrs old? Almost 22? He can wait, and he can grow a little more.

Perhaps the Phillies could use another SP. They have 6 who could start (counting Madson), but there are questions surrounding Myers, Madson, Floyd, and Lidle. And I don't know about you, but having Wolf or Padilla head the rotation doesn't excite me quite yet.

Now, here's my question: Why aren't more people talking about Odalis Perez?

The New York Times on Sunday had an interesting article comparing the various free agents out there. A lot of them had deceiving numbers (Russ Ortiz and Kris Benson were prime examples... and thank god the Mets continued their string of poor moves by signing Benson to a ridiculous contract). Ultimately, the article seemed to suggest that GM's liked Matt Clement, because of his K/9IP numbers and his Hits/9IP numbers, both tops in the free agent pool. I, however, think that Odalis Perez may be the true gem of the lot... by far.

The numbers for the past two seasons: (H/9IP - K/9IP - BB/9IP - ERA - Age)
Clement: 7.6 - 8.5 - 3.7 - 3.90 - 30
Perez: 8.8 - 6.3 - 2.1 - 3.87 - 27
Lowe: 10.3 - 5.0 - 3.3 - 4.92 - 31
Millwood: 9.1 - 7.3 - 3.0 - 4.34 - 30
Pavano: 8.8 - 5.8 - 2.1 - 3.61 - 28
Benson: 9.7 - 6.0 - 2.9 - 4.54 - 30
Morris: 8.9 - 6.0 - 2.3 - 4.28 - 30
Russ Ortiz: 8.1 - 6.3 - 4.6 - 3.97 - 30

What do these numbers tell me?
1. Please god, do not let the Phillies pretend that Lowe is a reliable groundball pitcher and go all out to sign him. He may have been lights out in the playoffs for the Sox, but those are some scary numbers for a 31 year old to have.

2. Pavano, widely considered the cream of the free agent crop is appealing for several reasons, namely his very low BB/9IP numbers. But has he proven it over time? No. Is he worth the money he'll be getting? I really don't think so... but I may be wrong on this. I'm willing to let this one go by without a swing, however.

3. The Mets are dreaming if they think Benson is worth all that money.

4. Odalis Perez -- This guy should be the target if you're considering any of these pitchers. Why?

His BB/9IP numbers are equal to Pavano's, and 2.1 is very very low. His other numbers are encouraging as well - 8.8 hits per nine is acceptable, and his 6.3 K's per nine compare favorable to the other pitchers in the group. In fact, his 2004 season, even with his minor injury issues, yielded a 1.14 WHIP, a nearly 3-to-1 K-BB ratio, and a .250 BAA. In addition, though his numbers took a dip in the 2003 season, his 2002 numbers are amazing (0.99 WHIP, a 4-to-1 K-BB ratio, .226 BAA)! He's done this before, in other words.

Throw in the fact that he's left-handed and only 27 years old... and you've got a no-brainer in my mind. In fact, his slightly-off 2003 season, as well as his pretty terrible playoff run, is probably serving to lower his asking price, so in a sense, you could get this guy at a slight bargain!

It is true that he was pitching a lot in LA and their pitcher-friendly park. But a look at his 2004 season shows that he had:
- limited Boston to 5 hits and 1 run, with 7 K's and 1 BB over 8 IP, in Fenway.
- stifled Baltimore's offense to 5 hits and 1 run over 7 IP.
- kept Atlanta quiet with 4 hits and 1 run over 7 IP (and lost, to show how misleading his W-L record is).

So, this guys has kept good offensive teams silent. He's no Chan Ho Park.

Therefore, here's what I say: If you're going to go after a free-agent SP, don't go after Lowe. Don't go after Pavano. Many teams seem to be all over these guys, and their price will sky rocket for no good reason. Instead, let's slip behind the lines and steal Odalis Perez. You'll be getting a guy who has a low 90's fastball, great control, great curve, and who even gets lots of groundouts. And he's 27, so you can actually build a good rotation around him!

Imagine it:
Odalis Perez
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Corey Lidle
Gavin Floyd or Ryan Madson (or Brett Myers)

There's a rotation I can live with.

Coming soon...

2004-11-21T23:23:00.000-05:00

I'll be discussing the various free agent SP's that are out there and why I think the Phillies should or shouldn't go after them. Sneak preview however: Don't go after Lowe!

And so it begins...

2004-11-21T13:43:00.000-05:00

Welcome! To the few people who may actually read this and come to my blog, thank you. I'll be starting a new weblog devoted to baseball. Now, I'm Philadelphia born and raised, and I absolutely love the Phillies. But while I'll be focusing on the Phillies, I'll also be talking about the rest of the league. I am after all, in the end, a baseball fan... and there is no shortage of stuff to talk about - the off season trades and signings, the new dimension added by fantasy baseball (which I am a fan of), and predictions for the upcoming season.

Ah, baseball. Gotta love it.

If you're with me on this, please, read my posts and by all means email me or post comments. Nothing better than an interesting dialogue or debate on this great sport.